Novak Djokovic's post-match impersonations of Maria Sharapova and Rafael Nadal after his quarterfinal victory over Carlos Moya in Arthur Ashe Stadium.
Top 25 U.S. Open Contenders
Sunday August 26
#1: Roger Federer
It's not often that a player is considered to be slightly off his game having just won a Masters Series event, but that's the case with Roger Federer and such is the standard he's set. In order to keep up with his own self, not only does he have to win, win, and win some more, but he has to win in flawless fashion. That hasn't happened since his very first tournament of 2007, when Federer cruised through his seven matches in the Australian Open without dropping a set; that's Federer 21 sets, opponents zero. The sailing hasn't been close to as smooth since then. After winning his next tournament in Dubai (but not without surprisingly tough three-set affairs with Kristian Pless and Novak Djokovic), recently-returned-from-suspension Guillermo Canas derailed Federer's spring hardcourt season. Canas stunned Federer 7-5, 6-2 in Indian Wells and then two weeks later shocked the tennis world again with another win over the world No. 1, this time 7-6 (7-2), 2-6, 7-6 (7-5). I think those have to be considered Federer's two most surprising defeats of 2007 (of six total) mainly because they came on hard courts, but Filippo Volandri's 6-2, 6-4 victory in the second round of the Masters Series Rome gives those a run for their money. Federer then pulled off an upset of his own in Hamburg by finally getting the best of Nadal on clay, punctuated with a 6-0 third set to capture the title (of course that was not before three-set close calls with Juan Monaco, David Ferrer, and Carlos Moya). So even when Federer has won this season, he hasn't exactly made it look easy. Even at Wimbledon, at times it looked like Nadal would beat Federer in their second consecutive Grand Slam final matchup, but Federer ultimately prevailed 6-2 in the fifth. We all know what happened in his first tournament after Wimbledon on the U.S. hard courts (lost to Djokovic 7-6 in the third), so that means after winning his first two hard-court events of the year, Federer was now 0 for his last three. If Federer had failed to win Cincinnati, we really could be talking about an up-for-grabs (at least relative to past years) U.S. Open. And he almost did fail. He struggled with Marcos Baghdatis in the third round but won in straights, dropped a set to clay-courter Nicolas Almagro in the quarters, and toiled into a third-set tiebreaker with Hewitt in the semis before finally kicking it gear and routing James Blake in the final. Now in all fairness to Federer, he would be having a legendary year by any other ATP Tour player's standards. He has a 45-6 match record in 2007, five titles, including two Grand Slams, and three runner-up finishes. He's been in the finals of eight of the 11 tournaments he's played. And to think it's considered to have been a trying year so far for Federer! Looking at the U.S. Open draw, things won't get any easier for Federer these next two weeks. It looks like a clear path to round four, where he will probably meet either Ferrero, Gasquet, Berdych, or Mathieu. He would then face Andy Roddick in the quarters, which would be a rematch of last year's final. The other quarter on that half of the draw doesn't look like it could provide any serious challenge in the semis (since Nadal and Djokovic are on the other half and Blake is arguably there favorite to reach the semis out of that quarter), and Federer would most likely get Djokovic, Nadal, or Hewitt in the final, although who really knows at this point. The bottom line is that even though Federer has looked vulnerable this year, he is still the only player who controls his own destiny at the U.S. Open. If Federer plays his best tennis, he will win the tournament, plain and simple. My feeling is that Federer will look human through his fist four matches (as he almost always does the first week of Grand Slams) and then get woken up by Andy Roddick in the quarters. After prevailing there--not without a decent fight--Federer will be ready to take it to the next level and he'll win his fourth straight U.S. Open.
Saturday August 25
#2: Novak Djokovic
Usually we're ready to hand the trophy to Roger Federer before the U.S. Open even starts, but this year it's not a done deal. Part of the reason is that Federer hasn't been quite as dominant in 2007 as he usually is on the hard courts, and part of the reason is this guy, Novak Djokovic. The Serb really started making a name for himself last year on the ATP Tour, but this year he has completely exploded onto the scene. And it started right away, as Djokovic took the season-opening tournament in Adelaide. Since his ranking hadn't yet gotten to where it is now, he had to meet Federer in the fourth round of the Australian Open, but at least he manhandled his three opponents prior to that. But Djokovic wasn't a household name - at least not thought of as one of the best three of four players in the world - until he made the trek over to the U.S. for the spring hard court season. That's when he officially introduced himself to the tennis world. At the Master Series in Indian Wells, Djokovic crushed people en route to the finals; on his way he did not lose a set and not one set was closer than 6-4. He beat David Ferrer 6-3, 6-4 in the quarters and the destroyed Andy Murray, who was healthy at the time, 6-2, 6-3. Djokovic understandably came out nervous against Nadal in the finals and couldn't quite recover from a bad start, losing 6-2, 7-5. Two weeks later in Miami, however, Djokovic had the confidence and experience to go one-step further. On his way to the title, Djokovic erased nadal 6-3, 6-4 in the quarters, pummeled Murray again, 6-1, 6-0, and ended Guillermo Canas' amazing run 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 to win his first Masters Series event. In those three weeks, he vaulted from #13 to #7 in the ATP rankings. There wasn't much a drop-off for Djokovic on the clay. After solid showings at the big tune-up tournaments, he made it to the semi-finals at Roland Garros before running into Nadal. The same thing happened at Wimbledon, and although Djokovic had more trouble in making the semis there, he showed a lot more guts. He beat Kiefer 7-6 in the fourth in a match that featured three tiebreakers, then got by Hewitt 7-6 in the fourth, winning three tiebreakers in that one. Djokovic next won a thriller of Marcos Baghdatis 7-5 in the fifth and won the first two sets in tiebreakers, including 11-9 in the first. If you think all these season stats are impressive, you haven't seen anything yet. At the Masters Series in Canada a few weeks ago, Djokovic became the first player to beat Nadal and Federer in the same tournament. Let's not forget he also straight-setted Kiefer, Nalbandian, and Roddick in the first three rounds. Even though Montreal isn't a Grand Slam, I think we can all agree that's been the most impressive tournament run by one player in a long time. He'll have to make a similarly impressive run if he's going to win the U.S. Open. He has Ancic in the first, potentially Stepanek in the second, and potentially Hewitt in the fourth. But if he navigated his way through the Montreal draw, he can definitely navigate through these waters. In two Opens, Djokovic has never made it past the third round, but this is obviously a different Djokovic. Draw aside, he has to be considered Federer's biggest threat in New York.Friday August 24
#3: Lleyton Hewitt
The more I think about it, this is too high for high for Hewitt, especially now being able to consider the draw. He would have to face Djokovic in the fourth round if both of them make it that far, so there's a good chance Hewitt won't even be one of the last eight remaining in the U.S. Open. That said, in recent weeks most players have played their way out of this spot as the No. 3 contender, while Hewitt has played his way in. The Aussie has consistently been getting better and better as the year's gone by. He started out mediocre at best on the hard courts from January through March, and then it took a while until he heated up on the clay. But that's when Hewitt's 2007 campaign turned around. He reached the semi-finals of the Masters Series in Hamburg, made it to the semis in the last French Open tuneup in Austria, and then posted three good wins at Roland Garros before losing to Nadal. After a decent showing on the grass at Wimbledon (once again the draw was the problem, as Djokovic took him out in four sets, including three tiebreakers, in the fourth round), Hewitt is really getting hot at just the right time on the U.S. hard courts. He only played in in the two Masters Series events, and he lost to Roger Federer in both. The first time came in the quarterfinals of Montreal where he lost 6-3, 6-4 (not an unusual score for a Hewitt-Federer match), but Hewitt played much better than the score indicated and it wasn't as much of a blowout as it has been in other recent meetings between these two. If that was a decent showing from Hewitt, his performance against Federer the next week in Cincinnati was phenomenal. After losing the first set 6-3, Hewitt bounced back to take a high-quality second set 9-7 in the tiebreaker, and he even jumped out to a break lead in the third before falling in a tiebreaker. Still it was a gutsy effort from Hewitt. What's new? Hewitt arguably plays with the most fire and guts on the tour, and he is probably the mentally strongest player out there. That bodes well for the Open, where others often succumb to the heat, the pressure, or the strain of too many five-set matches in not enough days (due to frequent rain delays in New York). None of that is an issue for Hewitt. I'd love to know what his career record in five-set matches is, but I also don't feel like searching for it. Anyone know? (He's 4-0 this year, including Grand Slams and Davis Cup). Hewitt is 6-1 in career five-set matches the U.S. Open. While that's awesome, his overall record there is simply insane. Hewitt played his first Open in 1999 and reached the third round. He's never done any worse than that. Starting in 2000, he's went semi-finals, champion, semi-finals, quarterfinals, finals, semis, quarters. Ridiculous! If it weren't for Djokovic being in his eighth of the draw, I'd definitely anticipate more of the same this year. Even so, that still might happen. Whoever wins that showdown should get to the finals. Hmmmm, after writing this I now think maybe this isn't too high for Hewitt....
Thursday August 23
#4: Andy Roddick
We're down to the final four and now I finally have the benefit of looking at the draw when ranking the contenders. The draw actually turned out rather difficult for all four of the remaining players, but a certain potential quarterfinal matchup looks especially daunting for Andy Roddick. Yep, getting bumped down to No. 5 in the rankings (by Davydenko, the new No. 4) ended up costing the American. A four seed would have guarenteed Roddick being able to avoid Roger Federer until at least the semi-finals, but a five seed does not. And that's exactly what happened: Roddick-Federer in the quarterfinals if they both make it that far. Draw aside, Roddick maybe would have been moved up to #3 here, but certainly no higher than that. He did win in Washington, D.C., but he still hasn't been playing that great recently. Roddick lost to Frank Dancevic in Indianapolis, Novak Djokovic in Montreal, and then David Ferrer in Cincinnati. The Djokovic loss is excusable, but Roddick just has to beat those other two guys on hard courts if he wants anyone to believe he can make another deep run at the U.S. Open. His results in Grand Slams this year also don't do much in the way of excitement. Although Roddick made it to the semis in Australia, he took a monster step back in his quest to finally beat Federer, losing 6-4, 6-0, 6-2. He obviously lost in the first round of the French, this time to clay-court specialist Igor Andreev, and then an on-fire Richard Gasquet took him out 8-6 in the fifth at the All-England Club. Granted those three results do not indicate how Roddick will fare these next two weeks, because the U.S. Open is without argument his best Grand Slam. After reaching the quarters there in 2001 and 2002, Roddick won his lone Slam in 2003, defeating Juan Carlos Ferrero in the final. He's been back to the quarterfinals and the finals (last year) since then, sandwiched around the major blemish to Gilles Muller in the 2005 Open. With really only Federer and Djokovic looking like the only top, top players who are really on top of the game, I would have given Roddick a decent chance to make the semis or even finals under normal circumstances. But having to face Federer in the quarters is anything but normal - at least not for Roddick.
Wednesday August 22
#5: Rafael Nadal
I had a hard time deciding on who should assume the #5 spot until I asked myself a simple question: "Would I take Nadal over either Hewitt, Federer, Roddick, or Djokovic in a match at the U.S. Open right now?" My answer was "no." And that's even if Nadal is 100% healthy, which he probably is, but it's not a certainty after he retired to Juan Monaco in Cincinnati with a left forearm injury. The problem with Nadal - in addition to his potential health question - is at least one, if not both, of the following: he just isn't playing best-in-the-world tennis right now, and/or he just isn't a force on hard courts. Well, the latter is certain. Consider Nadal's record at the Australian and U.S. Open (with the U.S. of course being much more telling in this case): He's played Down Under three times and has improved one round each time: third, fourth, then quarterfinals this year. It hasn't been that good in New York, where in four tries Nadal has made it past the third round just once, last year when he lost to Mikhail Youzhny in the quarters. In other words, the hard stuff (especially the fast hard stuff like they use in Flushing Meadows) is not Nadal's favorite by any means. He can't get to all the balls he tracks down on clay (although he still moves incredibly on hard courts) and his shots of course aren't as heavy. His serve doesn't kick up like it does on clay and it doesn't skid like it does on grass, and his topspin forehand isn't as punishing as it is at the French, simply because the hard courts don't allow it to be. I still think Nadal can make it back to the quarters once he gets a few rounds under his belt and gets back in the groove, but once he meets a typical hard-court player with a big serve and big groundstrokes, it could be the end of the road.
Tuesday August 21
#6: James Blake
Blake's season has been up-and-down, and back up again. He started out hot by winning in Sydney, reaching the fourth round of the Australian Open, and losing in the finals of Delray. Not a bad first three tournaments of 2007. It started going downhill on the hard courts during the spring, included in that stretch were brutal losses in Las Vegas, Indian Wells, and Miami. It only got worse on the clay, as Blake struggled through the French Open tune-ups and then lost in the first round at Roland Garros to big-serving Ivo Karlovic. As it often happens, however, Blake appears poised to salvage his year on the U.S. summer hardcourt circuit. He kicked off the U.S. Open series by reaching the finals of Los Angeles (lost to Stepanek) and then reached the quarters of Indianapolis before losing a thriller to Sam Querrey that featured zero breaks of serve in three sets. After being forced out of the second round of Montreal with a perturbing abdominal injury, Blake bounced back with a bang in reaching the finals in Cincinnati. En route he had a nice comeback win over Querrey and two impressive blowout wins over Ferrero and Davydenko. Those two matches were instances in which Blake simply catches fire. Blake almost always hits his forehand as hard as he can, and while sometimes that's a bad thing, in some matches it's nothing short of devastating for the opponent. I saw Blake play Nadal in the third round of the 2005 U.S. Open, and even though I was in the stratosphere of Arthur Ashe Stadium, I could still tell that it was one of the most ridiculous displays of tennis I've ever seen (Blake won in four, including 3 and 1 in the third and fourth sets). He made it to the quarters last year (where he lost that epic five-setter to Agassi) and he made it back again in 2006, before losing to Federer in four sets. So the Open has been kind to Blake in recent years, and it could be again. Blake is always hit-or-miss, but given his current form on the hard courts, he should be back in the quarters. But after that he has two things going against him: 1) he's never made it past that round of a Grand Slam, and 2) while he moved up from #8 to #6 with his showing last week in Cincinnati, he'll still probably draw either Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic in the quarters. Hopefully for Blake's sake it will be Nadal, but either way, a semi-final appearance would be too much to ask out of him.
Monday August 20
#7: Nikolay Davydenko
I had Davydenko grouped with three other guys for spots 4 through 7, and looking at his recent results (since Wimbledon) I've ranked him last among those four. During the brief clay-court stint following Wimbledon, Davydenko was positively awful. He won one match in four tournaments, with losses to Monfils, Florent Serra, Gilles Simon, and Martin Vassallo Arguello. The Russian has turned things around on the U.S. hard courts, but he's still not playing like the No. 4 player in the world. Davydenko reached the quarterfinals of Montreal and the semis of Cincinnati, posting several quality wins in each process, but the end of his run in Cincinnati is not sitting well with me at all. He got blown off the court by James Blake 6-4, 6-2. Now Blake was almost unconscious the entire match, but Davydenko did not do his part to make the match close and showed no belief on the court. That's often the problem with Davydenko. Save his blip on the clay courts following Wimbledon, Davydenko almost always beats players he's supposed to beat. However, he rarely wins matches that he's technically supposed to lose. Consider his record against the top players in the world: 0-9 against Federer and 0-2 against Nadal (and he's never played Djokovic). He's also 0-6 against James Blake and 0-4 versus Andy Roddick. Lleyton Hewitt is also 4-0 against Davydenko. That means Davydenko is a combined 0-23 against the top six U.S. Open contenders (I don't think that's any secret, anyway). So, yeah, there's a reason why Davydenko is ranked this low, if you consider #7 as "low." He did, however, fare very well at last year's Open, making it to the semi-finals where one of his nine losses to Federer promptly took place. On the way he destroyed Andy Murray and came back from two sets down to Tommy Haas in the quarters. Davydenko will be seeded fourth next week, so he'll avoid Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic. But assuming at least one of Roddick, Blake, and Hewitt is in his quarter, I don't see Davydenko making it back to the semis. Quarters, however, should be expected.
Sunday August 19
#8: Marcos Baghdatis
Baghdatis hasn't done anything as spectacular as his 2006 run to the Australian Open final, but he's been consistently solid throughout the year. After a disappointing loss to Gael Monfils Down Under, Baghdatis righted the ship in the most recent two Grand Slams. He reached the fourth round in Paris, where he lost to clay-court specialist Igor Andreev. At the All-England club he took out Nalbandian in the third round and Davydenko in the fourth before losing a thriller to Novak Djokovic 7-5 in the fifth set. It was another great performance at Wimbledon for Baghdatis, who made it all the way to the semis in 2006. The Cypriot hasn't lit up the U.S. Open Series by any means, but he hasn't been bad either. He lost to Roddick in the third round of Montreal and this week in Cincinnati he destroyed Andy Murray, got past Chela without much problem, and then missed a great opportunity to win the first set off Federer and possibly even win the match. Baghdatis has another great opportunity in front of him in the form of the 2007 U.S. Open, where he should be one of the main fan favorites outside of the Americans. We all remember last year's second-round epic in which he lost to Agassi 7-5 in the fifth set. There's no need to recap it, because I'm sure almost all fans saw it either live or on ESPN Classic, and I'm sure it will be on the Arthur Ashe video screen whenever there's a rain delay at the U.S. Open this year. In any case, Baghdatis went down with dignity to Agassi, and he should reap the benefits in terms of crowd support this time around. Then again, it's not like he needs outside help to make a deep run in Flushing Meadows. Baghdatis is one of the strongest players from the baseline (especially wit his solid two-handed backhand) and he's also one of the most athletic players on tour. I really hope he's around for the third round, because he seems to be one of the most exciting players to watch live, so I definitely want to see him (and he could be a candidate for the Grandstand then if Federer, Nadal, Roddick, and Blake are still in the tournament to fill up Ashe). It would definitely be a surprise if the Bagman isn't around at that point, because he has the talent and is playing well enough to make it to the quarters.
Saturday August 18
#9: Mikhail Youzhny
Youzhny is all-around solid, if not spectacular. Then again, Rafael Nadal might have something to say about that, as the Russian was positively on fire last year when he took out Nadal in the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open. Youzhny doesn't really do anything that amazing (although his one-handed backhand is definitely a force, but I don't think it's quite as good as the guy ranked #10 on this list) but he does everything well. His movement is especially surprising; Youzhny is a great athlete who can cover the whole court with ease and make opponents hit plenty of "winners" in order to win a point. He's entertaining to watch and plays to the crowd, and with his semi-final run last year, he should have the support of the Flushing Meadows crowd in 2007. The key for Youzhny is not to think about the pressure of defending so many points, as his 2007 Open is the main reason why he recently cracked the top 10 in the ATP rankings. That's not to say he hasn't racked up his fair share of rankings points with a consistently stellar 2007 campaign. He was especially productive earlier in the year on the hard courts, but he's still playing just fine. Youzhny reached the fourth round of both the French Open (lost to Federer in a pretty good match) and Wimbledon (lost a two-set lead to Nadal), but had some minor slip-ups on the clay prior to the U.S. Open Series. He won two matches in Montreal and destroyed Hrbaty in the first-round of Cincinnati before getting bounced by a sizzling Sam Querrey. So while Youzhny is still playing good tennis, he'll be well-rested going into the U.S. Open. In other words, there could be a lot more crowd salutes inside the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center (as seen in the picture above). Youzny will have a great seed (I assume 10) so he should make at least the fourth round. If he can draw Nadal or Roddick in the quarters as opposed to Federer or Djokovic, a quarterfinal or even another semi-final appearance would not be out of the question.
Friday August 17
#10: Richard Gasquet
Like several other players on this list so far, Gasquet was playing better earlier in the season. Well, at least more consistently. Gasquet did play some blistering tennis at Wimbledon this year, highlighted by a quarterfinal upset of Andy Roddick 8-6 in the fifth set. Always a great shotmaker, Gasquet was on fire from all over the court in that match. Unfortunately things have gone south since then for the Frenchman. After losing in the third round of the clay-court event in Gstaad, Gasquet has not won a match in his two U.S. Open Series tournaments. He lost to Fernando Verdasco 6-4 in the third in Montreal and was ousted by Hewitt in Cincinnati just a few days ago. More problematic than the losses is that Gasquet was forced to retire from his match against Hewitt with a nasty hand blister. That should be a non-issue after almost a full week of rest this week and all of next week (obviously he will not be playing in New Haven), but still it's something to think about in ranking the contenders. As long as he's healthy, Gasquet has the potential to make an impact at all four Grand Slams. He has an all-court game that can prosper on any surface, highlighted by arguably the best backhand in the game. Although he's only played two U.S. Opens, in that short time he more than proved he likes playing in New York. In 2005 he lost to Robby Ginepri in a five-set fourth round duel and the exact same result (but under different circumstances) happened again in 2006, when Hewitt took him out as Gasquet suffered from leg cramps in the fifth. Gasquet exited not without showing his heart. Despite barely being able to move the entire fifth set, he managed to lose just 6-3 and hit some mind-boggling shots in the process. It's hard to describe in words, but Gasquet hit the most ridiculous backhands I've ever seen (if you saw the match you know which one) that was certainly the shot of the year on the ATP Tour - after a long rally, Gasquet literally hobbled to what should have been a Hewitt winner and Gasquet promptly smashed a cross-court winner of his own. Will there be more where that came from this time around? There certainly was at Wimbledon, and there every well could be at Flushing Meadows.
Thursday August 16
#11: Fernando Gonzalez
Gonzalez's case is just about the same as that of Marat Safin, but not quite to such a negative extent. He's either incredible or awful; rarely is there any middle ground. Safin, however, is playing even worse than Gonzalez at the moment and the Chilean at least had some great performances earlier in the year. And by "great" I mean some of the best tennis I've ever seen. At the Australian, Fernando raced all the way to the finals (where he lost to Federer) and looked like a world-beater in doing so. After two hard-fought matches in the opening rounds, Gonzalez caught fire and rolled over Hewitt and Blake with relative ease in rounds three and four. Only then did things really get out of control. He absolutely destroyed Nadal 6-2, 6-4, 6-2 in the quarters and inflicted even more pain on Tommy Haas in a 6-1, 6-3, 6-1 semi-final drubbing. It's not surprising, however, that Gonzalez hasn't come close to keeping up that form as the year progressed. His play is almost always at one extreme or the other and rarely does he maintain one or the other for any extended period of time. Hopefully that means he'll be due to come out of his current funk at the U.S. Open. Gonzalez has lost in the first round of all three U.S. Open Series tournaments he's played this summer, including an awful straight-set loss to Zack Fleishman in Los Angeles. Nonetheless, Fernando has one of the biggest games on tour and he can suddenly find it at any moment. He has the biggest forehand in the game too, and that can either be a great thing or a terrible thing. When he goes for it at the right time (as he did earlier this year, playing smart tennis under coach Larry Stephanki) it's nothing short of devastating. I've seen Gonzalez from the front row several times at the Open and I feared for my safety on each occasion. He could be out first round this year, or he could make a deep run, just like we saw in Australia. With Gonzalez, you never know.
Wednesday August 15
#12: Radek Stepanek
Stepanek was barely on my top 25 radar screen prior to the hard-court season, but his blistering summer pace is cause for a meteoric rise to #13 in the rankings. He opened up the U.S. Open Series by winning Los Angeles, where he beat James Blake in the final. Next, Stepanek extended Andy Roddick to three sets in a tough third-round match at the Legg Mason. In Montreal, he got past Jonas Bjorkman, Fernando Gonzalez, Tommy Haas, and Nikolay Davydenko before losing to Federer in the semis. In that match Stepanek had Federer down triple break point at 4-4 in the first set but squandered that huge opportunity to take a lead. Federer won that set 7-5 and as expected, rolled in the second. However, just as Mathieu lost a dreadful match right as I bestowed a high ranking upon him, Stepanek did the same today by losing to David Ferrer in Cincinnati 6-2, 7-5. That puts a bit of a damper on Stepanek's streak, but we have to realize that Ferrer is just about the worst matchup he can have. Stepanek plays an attack game, with plenty of serve-and-volley and chip-and-charge off the return. Ferrer, however, owns one of the best service returns in the game and can make life miserable for guys who love to charge the net. I didn't see it but I imagine Ferrer connected on a ton of passing shots and consistently made Stepanek hit balls at his feet at the net. In any case, the point is Stepanek is playing great tennis of late and he should bounce back from this loss to continue his stellar play. The problem is that Stepanek will be at the mercy of the U.S. Open draw because he won't be seeded. He missed all of last year after Wimbledon with a neck injury and then lost a bunch of points this year on clay, a surface that stunts his style (Stepanek made the finals of Hamburg last year and this time lost first round, so he saw rankings points go out the window there). As long as Stepanek avoids Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, etc. in the early rounds, he should hang around until at least the third or fourth round.
Tuesday August 14
#13: Paul-Henri Mathieu
Mathieu's 2007 pace can be described as a steady burn. He hasn't really set the world on fire (he has won two smaller tournaments but didn't beat anyone that great in either process) but he doesn't have any terrible losses on his record. In fact, Mathieu has only lost in the first round of a tournament twice this entire year. That's impressive. His match record is an extremely stellar 35-15 and he's really starting to heat up at just the right time heading into the U.S. Open. He's reached at least the third round of every tournament he's entered since Hamburg in May (starting with the French Open, where he lost to clay-court specialist Igor Andreev in round three). Mathieu had three very good wins at Wimbledon (Stepanek, Ferrer, Ljubicic) before losing to Roddick. He then won on the clay in Gstaad and followed that up with wins over Canas and Ancic in Montreal, before letting a three-set match with Nadal slip away. Needless to say, Mathieu is one of the hottest players on tour right now. I'm not a huge Mathieu fan, but he did play in one of the many classics I've seen on the Grandstand at the U.S. Open. In a 2005 third-round match he lost to Sargis Sargsian in a fifth-set tiebreaker. The Armenian came back from two sets down to win. The best part of the match, though, was the 5-5 game in the fifth that probably lasted 20 minutes in which Mathieu finally held serve after blowing tons of game points but also saving plenty of break points. The match was made even more classic by the Armenian fans providing for a Davis Cup-like atmosphere. I'd be surprised if Mathieu doesn't reach at least the third round this year, and he should last longer depending on his draw.
Monday August 13
#14: Marat Safin
Sunday August 12
#15: Dmitry Tursunov
Tursunov struggled early in the season, but he's heated up as the courts have gotten faster. That's not too surprising, as Tursunov's game is all about power. His serve is big but it's his forehand that is simply gargantuan. The Russian's summer run began at Queen's Club where he rolled through Dancevic, Mathieu, and Fernando Gonzalez before losing to Roddick in the semis. Tursunov next reached the semis of Nottingham before losing in the third round at Wimbledon to Haas. He had a minor blip on his first U.S. Open Series stop in Los Angeles, but he quickly turned things around by winning Indianapolis. Granted he was the beneficiary of some upsets that opened up the draw, but he still played some great tennis. The bad news is Tursunov lost to Kiefer in his first match in Montreal and he won't get much match practice this week in Cincinnati because he will face Federer in the second round if he gets by Benneteau. Still, Tursunov's game is suited for the U.S. Open hard courts and he has all the tools to overwhelm opponents. He is too impatient and inconsistent to really contend for Grand Slam titles yet, but a fourth-round appearance in Flushing Meadows wouldn't be surprising.
Saturday August 11
#16: Guillermo Canas
I really wanted to rank Canas even higher because he's one of my favorite players on tour right now. Like many other tennis fans, I wrote his career off after he was suspended more than a year for alleged doping at 28 years old. Now almost 30, Canas is back and arguably as good as ever. The Argentine began the year ranked 142 in the world; by the end of March he was 28th, in June he was up to 17, and he now finds himself at No. 15 in the world. That's an impressive rise under any circumstances, but for an older player coming back from such an absence, it's unheard of. The reason I don't have Canas any higher is because he has played only one hard-court match since the AMS Miami and he lost it last week to streaking Paul-Henri Mathieu. Canas did, however, have the Frenchman on the ropes up a set and two breaks before Mathieu caught fire. Plus Canas already more than proved his worth on the hard courts by stunning Roger Federer twice this spring, first in Indian Wells and then two weeks later in Miami. Hmmmm, maybe I really should have Canas ranked higher after all.... Oh well, he's proved me wrong once. Let's see if he can prove me wrong again with a run into the second week of the U.S. Open.
Friday August 10
#17: Thomas Berdych
It seems like Berdych has been around for a long time, yet he is still only 21 years old. He's always had a world of talent -- especially a huge serve and forehand -- and it's starting to be realized. Berdych is No. 14 in the 2007 ATP Race and No. 10 in the overall rankings. I was higher on Berdych before his last two tournaments, the first in Stuttgart where he lost to Feliciano Lopez 0-and-3 and most recently in Montreal where he dropped an opening-round match to newcomer Robin Haase. Still, you can't discount his other recent results: Berdych won the Wimbledon tune-up in Halle, Germany and then he reached the quarterfinals at the All-England Club before losing to eventual runner-up Nadal. With his power, the 6'5'' Berdych loves faster courts and that should bode well for the U.S. Open; it has in the past. He's reached the fourth round in two of four appearances and he has never lost in the first round. Rumor has it that the always-fast Open courts are even faster this year, so Berdych has to like the sound of that. Regardless of court speed, Berdych has the game to threaten any player not named Roger Federer (although he was the one who beat Federer at the 2004 Athens Olympics!).
Thursday August 9#18: Tommy Haas
Under normal circumstances Haas would be ranked higher in the list of contenders, but he just hasn't played enough tennis recently. The German pulled out of Wimbledon with a torn stomach muscle (and he was also nursing a sore right shoulder) after winning three matches and facing a fourth-round clash with Roger Federer. Haas then took a few weeks off before returning at the Legg Mason Classic in D.C. There he cruised to two routine wins before becoming victim number four of John Isner's miracle third-set tienreaker run. Apart from the injury concerns, Haas has enjoyed a solid 2007 campaign, highlighted by a great spring season on the hard courts -- which obviously bodes will for the U.S. Open. Haas reached the semis of the Australian Open, won in Memphis, and then made it to the quarterfinals of the AMS Indian Wells. He also has a stellar U.S. Open record going for him as well, having reached at least the fourth round in five of his last seven appearances. Last year Haas was one set away from the semis before Davydenko stormed back to win the last three sets. Always a gritty competitor, Haas won both his third and fourth-round matches in the fifth-set tiebreaker, first over Ginepri and then over Safin. You can never count Haas out, and you can expect him to once again win a few matches in Flushing Meadows, but it's hard to pick him to make a deep run unless he does something spectacular in the next two tune-up weeks.
Wednesday August 8
#19: Carlos Moya
Considering that Moya in 30 years old -- 31 right at the start of the U.S. Open -- the Spaniard is enjoying an incredible 2007 campaign. It's actually stellar by almost any player's standards, but it's especially impressive for an "old" (relatively speaking) player. Moya is an impressive 35-16 this year and he reached the finals of both Sydney and Acapulco and recently won the title in Umag, Croatia. He had a few minor blips on the radar leading up to the French Open, but he turned it up at the AMS Hamburg and carried that momentum into a quarterfinal appearance at Roland Garros. Other than losing an epic 13-11 in the 5th set showdown at Wimbledon to local favorite Tim Henman, Moya has continued his torrid pace. He reached the semis of the clay-court tournament in Bastad and then won on the clay in Umag. Moya lost to Marcos Baghdatis today in Montreal, but that wasn't surprising; the Bagman has picked up the pace in a major way since some early-season travails and he's much more adept to the hard courts than Moya anyway. That's not to say Moya is some kind of slouch on the hard stuff. He's won at least one match the last nine U.S. Opens and he's a former semi-finalist. Moya won't go that far this time around, but his ranking has soared from near 40 up to 20 this season and that means he'll have a solid seed, which should allow him to reach the third or fourth round.
Tuesday August 7
#20: Ivan Ljubicic
You know things have to be going poorly for Ljubicic to be ranked this low, and that's absolutely the case. Since bowing out of Wimbledon in the third round to Paul-Henri Mathieu, the Croat has lost first round in his only two tournaments, including a very disappointing third-set tiebreaker loss today in Montreal to almost-unheard-of American Wayne Odesnik. To make things worse, Ljubicic is a woeful Grand Slam player considering his talent level and performances in other tournaments. He's especially bad at the U.S. Open, where he holds just a 6-8 lifetime record. In 2006 he was dismantled by Feliciano Lopez in the first round. Ljubicic should at least be able to win a few matches this year, but at the same time another first-round exit wouldn't be a total shocker given his current form.
Monday August 6
#21: Juan Carlos Ferrero
Ferrero was probably the best player in the world back in 2003 when he lost to Andy Roddick in the finals of the U.S. Open shortly after winning at Roland Garros. The Mosquito still has tons of talent but he is a lot more inconsistent nowadays. A shockingly good run at Wimbledon this summer has been sandwiched in between some rather pedestrian results. Ferrero lost to Feliciano Lopez in the third round of Stuttgart and then he suffered a bad loss to Andreas Seppi in Austria. It will be interesting to see how he fares this week in Montreal, especially with a first-round match against Lleyton Hewitt. Since the 2003 Open, Ferrero has been awful at Flushing Meadows. He lost second round to unseeded players in 2004 and 2006 and first round in 2005. Still, Ferrero is too good to be discounted. With a little bit of luck, perhaps we can see the Ferrero we saw this summer at the All-England Club.
Sunday August 5
#22: Tommy Robredo
Robredo has been flat-out bad since a quarterfinal appearance at the French Open, but it looks like he could be turning things around this week in Poland. He plays Jose Acasuso in the finals today after winning his first four matches, albeit against players over whom he was the clear favorite. In between this tournament and Roland Garros, Robredo lost in the second round of Wimbledon, got bounced in the first round of his next two tournaments, and then lost to Juan Monaco in Austria. Had he not escaped against Steve Darcis earlier this week, we'd be talking about a fairly major slump for Robredo at the moment. That said, a win tomorrow will go a long way for his confidence heading into the U.S. Open Series. The Spaniard fared pretty well over here in last year's hard-court season. He took out Safin in the AMS Toronto, made it to the semis of the AMS Cincinnati, and then won three matches at the Open. Robredo is a clay-courter first and foremost, but he has a better-than-average serve, a great forehand, and moves very well, so he is also a formidable foe on the hard stuff. He is mainstay in the fourth round of the U.S. Open, reaching that stage four times, including the last three years. I doubt he'll be able to reach that elusive quarterfinal this time around, but considering that it looks like he has rediscovered his game this week, another fourth-round showing wouldn't be a shock.
Saturday August 4
#23: Gael Monfils
I was planning on going with Jarkko Nieminen here, but Nieminen just isn't a very exciting choice and Monfils is just that. Monfils could flame out long before Jarkko at the Open, but he also has the potential to go a long way. With Nieminen, you pretty much know you're going to two or three wins out of him, no more no less. With Monfils, who knows. The Frenchman was positively awful earlier this season, but he turned his 2007 campaign around with a solid showing on the clay. He had two solid wins at Roland Garros and then at Wimbledon, and since then he's posted victories over Robredo and Davydenko. His current run in Washington, D.C. - and specifically today's quarterfinal straight-set win over Safin - got him into this top 25. Plus, when you can do things like what he's doing in the picture above, you know you've got skills. Monfils is arguably the most athletic player on the tour and he will be a tough out at the Open. He has never made it past the fourth round of any Slam and never past the second round in Flushing Meadows, but if he keeps up the momentum with a few more good showings during the U.S. Open series and gets some good fortune with the Open draw (he'll need it because he won't be seeded), we could see a sort of emergence from Monfils.
Friday August 3
#24: David Nalbandian
Tennis fans who have been following the tour closely week in and week are probably wondering, “Why do you have Nalbandian ranked so high?” while tennis fans who know the good players but haven’t really been paying close attention recently are probably wondering, “Why so low?” Well there’s a reason for both. Nalbandian has not been the same player this year as he once was. His record in 2007 is a mediocre 14-13 and since the conclusion of his relatively poor clay-court, he has just two wins and three losses. Among those losses was an absolute straight-set drubbing at the hands of Marcos Baghdatis in the third round of Wimbledon. In Los Angeles Nalbandian lost in the first round to Igor Kunitsyn. All that said, Nalbandian has way too much potential to exclude him from the top 25 contenders. We can’t completely forget his epic five-set win over Federer at the 2005 year-end Masters Cup. Nalbandian has been more than solid at the U.S. Open in the past as well. He reached the semi-finals in 2003 where he had match points against Roddick, and he made it to the quarters in 2005. Nalbandian is capable of making another run in New York, but he’ll have to find his game in a hurry. Playing in some of these hard-court tournaments and getting some good wins under his belt is essential for the Argentine heading into the Open.
Thursday August 2
#25: Jonas Bjorkman
Call me crazy, but this is not a misprint. Let's get something straight right off the bat: this does not mean the 25 players who have the best chance to win, because we all know Federer is almost a shoe-in, and even if he gets stunned, it will come down to only a handful of players like Nadal, Roddick, and Djokovic. So really this is counting down the 25 players who have a legit chance to make some noise in Flushing Meadows. You don't have to look any further than Bjorkman's recent Grand Slam results to know he can do just that. At the French Open, on what is surely his worst surface, Bjorkman made it to the fourth round and won his first two matches coming back from two sets down. He won three matches at Wimbledon as well, and while that wasn't as stunning as his semi-final appearance last year, that's not too shabby for a 35-year old wouldn't you say? Bjorkman is still ranked too low to be seeded so he will have to get a favorable draw, but if he does, he could be around into the second week. But, hey, if not, it should allow him to focus on ressurecting the slumping doubles team of Bjorkman and Mirnyi.