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Pacific Life Open (Indian Wells) Preview

Fear not, tennis fans! There’s a reason why only one tournament is taking place this week. It’s the Masters Series in Indian Wells and other than the four Grand Slams and some of the other Masters events, this is as big as it gets. All the big players are in California (USA) for what should be a wildly entertaining 11-day stretch (starting Thursday) of tennis. So hunker down and buckle up for the first huge tournament since January’s Australian Open.

Where: Indian Wells, California

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: US $3,589,000

Top Seed: Roger Federer

Defending Champion: Rafael Nadal

Draw Analysis: In what seems like a long time, it looks like Roger Federer finally has an easier road to a tournament final than Rafael Nadal. Third-seeded Novak Djokovic—unlike at the Aussie Open—is in Nadal’s half, and Nadal could play Dubai runner-up Feliciano Lopez in the third round and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the runner-up Down Under, in round four. While Federer won’t have an easy time of it by any stretch of the imagination, he should be able to cruise through the early stages of the tournament. It will not get tricky until the quarterfinals, where the world No. 1 could meet either nemesis Andy Murray, who beat him in the first round of Dubai, or Andy Roddick, who won the Dubai title. Assuming Marat Safin does not suddenly catch fire, there’s nothing much else to speak of in Federer’s section. In Nadal’s draw, the fourth and final quarter of the field, streaking players Robin Soderling and Robby Ginepri look to wreak havoc on the seeds.

Novak Djokovic is the clear favorite in the third quarter of the draw, but his potential run to the semifinals is far from smooth. 2007 Indian Wells and Miami sensation Guillermo Canas lurks in that section and the Argentine appears to finding his form just in time after missing the early part of 2008 with a wrist injury. Fifth-seeded David Ferrer was simply awesome last year, and while he is yet to enjoy that same success this season, he could regain it at any time. The Spaniard has on-fire Michael Llodra nearby, and either Marcos Baghdatis or Tomas Berdych would most likely be his fourth-round opponent, but anything short of the quarterfinals would be a disappointment for Ferrer.

Nikolay Davydenko’s quarter, not surprisingly, looks like a complete and utter free-for-all. Some major talents are in that section; among them David Nalbandian, Fernando Gonzalez, and Mikhail Youzhny. All three of those guys, however, could just as easily flame out in their first matches as they could navigate through this part of the draw into the semifinals. Tennis Channel Open winner Sam Querrey, in-form Radek Stepanek, and the always tough Lleyton Hewitt also could make some noise in this second quarter of the draw. Also don’t forget about three unseeded players with power games in John Isner, Mario Ancic, and Ernests Gulbis. If any part of that trio is serving well and playing up to its potential, seeds could go tumbling.

First-Round Upset Alert: Julien Benneteau over Tommy Haas. All 32 seeds get byes into the second round at the Pacific Life Open, so there is not a lot to choose from in terms of potential first-round upsets. At this point Benneteau over Haas would only be a minor surprise—if a surprise at all—considering the Frenchman’s strong showing in Las Vegas last week and Haas’ recent injury problems. The German missed the Australian Open and this month he has been slow to recover from off-season shoulder surgery and the controversial Davis Cup food poisoning. Not only did Benneteau win the Tennis Channel Open doubles title with compatriot Michael Llodra just a few days ago, but he also pulled off a huge singles victory over second-seeded Lleyton Hewitt en route to the quarterfinals. Perhaps Benneteau is not even the underdog in this contest. Either way, expect him to come through.

Since it’s slim pickings for first-round upsets, I’ll add a few potential ones to look at in round two. If Ginepri can get past fellow American Vince Spadea in his opening match, he should be able to take out 19th-seeded Carlos Moya. Ginepri has reached three straight semifinals while Moya has not done anything to get excited about in 2008. If Janko Tipsarevic survives Nicolas Massu in the first round, the Serb should have little trouble with No. 15 seed Tommy Robredo. Hewitt could face a brutal matchup with Las Vegas champion Querrey in the 24th seed’s opening match, while 12th-seeded Fernando Gonzalez will have his hands full if Mario Ancic advances past Gael Monfils in the first round.

Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Nicolas Almagro, Andy Murray (two titles and a win over Federer in 2008), Andy Roddick (two titles this year, including Dubai last week), Sam Querrey (winner in Vegas last week), Radek Stepanek, Michael Llodra (two titles this season), Novak Djokovic (Australian Open champion), Robin Soderling, Robby Ginepri, Feliciano Lopez (Dubai runner-up), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (Aussie Open runner-up).

Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Roger Federer, Tommy Robredo, Marat Safin, Ivo Karlovic, Fernando Verdasco (lost in second round of all five tournaments he’s played in 2008), Tommy Haas (coming back slowly from injury), Mikhail Youzhny, Gael Monfils (has not played since September), Juan Monaco (recovering from injury), Xavier Malisse, Dmitry Tursunov, Frank Dancevic.

Semifinal Predictions: Roger Federer over Nikolay Davydenko and Rafael Nadal over Guillermo Canas

Final Prediction: Roger Federer over Rafael Nadal

COMMENTS AND YOUR OWN PREDICTIONS ARE APPRECIATED!

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Sampras and Federer Set For Monday Showdown

Grand Slam record-holder Pete Sampras and current world No. 1 Roger Federer will face off four the fourth time in the last five months when the two champions partake in exhibition inside New York's famous Madison Square Garden on Monday night.

The previous three meetings all came in Asia last November. Federer brings a 2-1 advantage into tonight's showdown, having won the first match 6-4, 6-3 in Seoul, South Korea and the second 7-6(6), 7-6(4) in Kuala Lumpur. Sampras, however, bounced back to take the most recent meeting 7-6(8), 6-4 in Macau, China.

Even though this is a good-spirited exhibition, both players should be really wanting to win this one. Questions have surfaced about whether or not Federer's reign of domination is ending, as the Swiss has failed to win either of his two tournaments in 2008. He lost to Novak Djokovic in the semifinals of the Australian Open and last week fell to Andy Murray in the first round of the Dubai Tennis Championships. A pre-Aussie Open bout with mononucleosis surely hindered his chances Down Under, and now is the time Federer can show that he is still a dominant force when healthy.

Sampras is looking to prove that his victory over Federer in the third clash was no fluke. Federer had already taken the first two meetings, so while he surely did not try to lose the third one, he might not have been playing with that same kind of win-at-all-costs desire. If Sampras wins on Monday, you can be sure it will be a fair-and-square triumph over a driven opponent.

"He's not going to want to lose; I'm not going to want to lose," Sampras said. "That's what people are coming to really see. It's not us doing cartwheels. It's about me serving 130 (mph) on the line."

Ivan Lendl, who won eight Grand Slam titles in his career and is helping to prevent tonight's NetJets Showdown, also chimed in on the matter.
"They didn't get to the top of the field in their time — and most likely top two or three or four all-time — by not being competitive," he said. "So, yes, there may be a little lightheartedness, but at the end of the day, I think both will want to win rather urgently."

When asked to predict a winner, Lendl shied away, saying,
"If it goes the way I think it will go, in terms of atmosphere and a good match, the winner, in my mind, will be tennis.... How's that for avoiding the question?"

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An Explanation: Why I’m Driving the Ernests Gulbis Bandwagon

My unabashed fandom of Ernests Gulbis has come under some serious heat – and for good reason – recently on some tennis message boards around the internet. I only say for good reason simply because his results have been dismal in 2008. When you’re not winning, people hop of the bandwagon faster than an Andy Roddick first serve.

I understand why people don’t understand why I’m head-over-heels for Gulbis’ tennis game. Not only have his results this season been nothing to write home about, but other than a fourth-round appearance at the 2007 U.S. Open and a few solid performances in Challenger events, the 19-year-old has not done much to make a name for himself.

With that said, I feel it’s necessary – as someone who witnessed the greatest three sets of Gulbis’ tennis career from the front row - to provide a bit more explanation regarding said infatuation.

Let me start by pasting the comments I wrote on my blog immediately following the match (U.S. Open 3rd Round: Ernests Gulbis d. Tommy Robredo 6-1, 6-2, 6-3):

“Ladies and Gentlemen,

I witnessed every stroke of this match from the FRONT ROW of the Grandstand right behind the baseline.

It was the most shocking display of tennis I have EVER witnessed and I am not kidding.

I had heard of Gulbis just a little bit prior to this match, and my brother I don’t think ever had. We were watching warmups and were already thinking, ‘Wow, this could be a good match.’ Then we saw serving warmups and thought, ‘good Lord, this could REALLY be a good match.’

The first set was nothing short of complete shock and awe. All we could do was just laugh at how ridiculous Gulbis was. I literally had to bury my head in my hat during some points because I was just laughing. Completely and utterly ridiculous.

And it never changed. The whole entire match was complete and utter domination. Several times Robredo looked at Gulbis and smirked in disbelief. Other times he resorted to banging rackets against the wall and kicking trash-cans.

Robredo was completely SHELL-SHOCKED, as was I, as was the entire Grandstand crowd.

At changeovers during the 3rd set almost the entire crowd stood up and chanted ‘ERNESTS, ERNESTS, ERNESTS’ or ‘GULBIS, GULBIS, GULBIS.’

A brief analysis of all aspects of Gulbis’ game:

1st serve: unbelievable
2nd serve: better than most players' first
Forehand: one of biggest in the game
Backhand: solid, hits it one inch from the opponents' baseline every single time
Volley: unbelievably solid
Return of serve: flawless, blocks it deep with backhand, punishes it with forehand
Drop shot: by far the best on the pro tour
Style of play: Everything. Everything flawless. Has more variety than anyone other than Federer. He can destroy you from the baseline, comes into net a decent amount and does so at ALL the right times. Uses drop shot to perfection and comes in behind it.

I'm certain I will never see anything like this match ever again. I MIGHT see tennis as good, but absolutely never anything like that again from a 19-year old who I've barely ever heard of.

Actually I'm still in shock - and showing no signs of coming out of it.

Clearly I was still on a different planet while writing the above comments, but it really was just about that out-of-control.  Now that my descent back to earth is complete (as that match took place six months ago), I am not quite as blinded from reality. His second serve is not “better than most players’ firs,” his drop shot is not “by far the best on the pro tour,” and his style of play is not everything “flawless.”

Still, he is not just some young flash-in-the-pan that many uninformed fans make him out to be. The biggest knock on Gulbis is that he is – and this one of my favorite terms - a “brainless ball-basher.” It’s true, at many times this youngster does resort to brainless ball-bashing. Like a young Marat Safin, he often tries to blow people off the court with monstrous serves and forehands without any remote indication of tactical thinking.

The match against Robredo, however, proves that he is capable of not only playing overwhelming tennis, but also smart tennis. On serve he went for it all with his first balls, knowing that he could afford to miss more than a few since Robredo was doing nothing against his second offering; and he didn’t go for too much on second serve (not one double fault), understanding that his opponent was standing extraordinarily far behind the baseline so he could take control of the point just by spinning it in. Once the rallies got going, Gulbis consistently chose the perfect times to go for winners. He would work Robredo’s backhand over and over again with topspin deep into the corner of the ad-side of the court, and when finally the Spaniard floated a short ball back, Gulbis would step in and smash a forehand cross-court winner. Or – having pinned Robredo several feet behind the baseline, he would dropshot. He followed those drop-shots and approach shots into net at all the right times and put away volleys with textbook technique and incredible ease.

Now I fully recognize the validity of dissenting arguments. Robredo, of course, is bordering on being nothing more than mediocre on hard courts; always has been and especially is at this point in his career. There are also countless up-and-comers right now with lethal serve-forehand combinations.

Looking back on it, I think it’s not so much the quality of tennis that I witnessed (although the quality very well may have been the best I’ve ever seen live), as the shock factor of the tennis I witnessed that sent me into such an altered state.

Perhaps I'll see another display of tennis as good as what I saw out Gulbis for about 90 glorious minutes that Sunday night, but I'm not sure. What I am sure of is that I'll never be as shocked watching a tennis match - or probably any sporting event period - as I was during that display. It came completely out of nowhere. Like I said, most of the Grandstand crowd had ever seen or heard of Gulbis when he walked onto the court. Just two quick sets later, almost everyone in the Grandstand was standing up during changeovers and chanting his name. Craziness! Ah, the U.S. Open.

In closing, I admit the performance had me blinded from reality for quite some time. Gulbis’ ascension is not going to take place overnight. He’s just 19 and it is going to take some time before he harnesses the power and turns it into controlled, tactical aggression. Until then, he will most like put up largely inconsistent results: a few incredible performances en route to big upsets, mixed in with too many error-filled matches leading to horrific losses.

Give him time, folks. Give him time. And while you’re at it, go see him play the next time you’re at a tournament. You might see a loss, but in the process you might see enough flashes of brilliance to convince you to hop on the bandwagon.

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Australian Open Day 14

Djokovic Ends Tsonga’s Aussie Open Run

Novak Djokovic captures his first Grand Slam title on Sunday night at the Australian Open, defeating surprise finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in four sets.

Third-seeded Novak Djokovic capped off an impressive fortnight in style on Sunday in Melbourne, Australia. The 20-year-old Serb emerged from a hard-fought battle against unseeded Jo-Wilfried Tsonga with a 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(2) victory to win the first Grand Slam title of his career at the 2008 Australian Open.

It wasn’t the Federer-Nadal final that many tennis fans were eagerly anticipating, but this matchup had plenty of sizzle thanks to the brilliant play of both Djokovic and Tsonga leading up to the championship match. Djokovic had not lost a single set prior to Sunday despite having faced formidable foes Lleyton Hewitt, David Ferrer, and one Roger Federer in consecutive matches starting in the fourth round. The underdog Tsonga, meanwhile, pulled off four huge upsets during his memorable Cinderella run to the final. He took out ninth-seeded Andy Murray in the first round, eight-seeded Richard Gasquet in the fourth, fourteenth-seeded Mikhail Youzhny in the quarters, and second-seeded Rafael Nadal in the semis.

While neither Djokovic nor Tsonga could sustain the same level of play in the face of Grand Slam final pressure, the two contestants still managed to thrill the Rod Laver Arena faithful. It was a high-quality match to be sure. It simply was not quite as mind-boggling as their previous performances.

At the beginning, however, it looked like Tsonga would once again be up to his old tricks. The crowd favorite dropped serve in the opening game of the match but promptly got the crowd into the match by breaking Djokovic right back. Almost the entire arena other than Djokovic’s box was rooting vociferously for Tsonga, and that resulted in some alleged heckling of the Serb’s camp which seemed to cause problems throughout the first set. The break of serve and the situation in the stands left the Serb flustered at the same time energizing Tsonga, who served at a 68-percent clip in the first set and was never threatened again in the first set on his service games. But it was with his return that the 22-year-old Frenchman did the most damage in the opening stages of the match. Just as he had done throughout the tournament, Tsonga took control of points early and completely dictated play. Whenever Djokovic failed to put in his first serve, Tsonga would jump all over the second offering and that aggressive strategy worked to perfection as he took 10 of his opponent’s 14 second-serve points in the first set. That led to one more break for Tsonga and one more break was all he needed. The set culminated with Tsonga hitting a stunning one-the-run topspin forehand lob that sailed over a hapless Djokovic’s head and bounced just inside the baseline.

Unlike Nadal before him, Djokovic was not about to get wiped off the court in three quick sets. Although his serve almost completely fell apart in the second set (he put in less than half of his first balls), the rest of Djokovic’s game picked up considerably. He began to take control of the baseline rallies and having made more unforced errors than winners in the first set, Djokovic struck 10 winners to just five errors in the second.

Djokovic really started to deliver what looked like a knockout blow in the third set. He put in 70 percent of his first serves, won thirteen of his fourteen first serve points, and only lost a total of four points on serve the entire set. The Serb also did to Tsonga what Tsonga had done to him in the first set. Djokovic took an impressive seven of 13 (54 percent) points on the Frenchman’s second serve. He broke twice in the third set, converting two of ten break point chances, whereas Tsonga did not see one single break opportunity against Djokovic’s serve in the third frame of play.

With Djokovic on a roll and Tsonga looking like his thrilling two-week journey through the Australian Open had finally taken its toll on him both mentally and physically, the fourth set seemed like a foregone conclusion. But just as Tsonga found new life in putting forth one last effort to get back in the match, Djokovic suffered a minor hamstring strain. Thanks in part to his opponent’s hindered movement but mainly to his own booming serve, Tsonga was never threatened on serve in the fourth set. The reeling Djokovic, however, struggled in his service games and had to come up with several pressure-packed shots in order to keep up the pace in the fourth set. Never was that the case more than at 5-5 and Djokovic serving. Down break point, the Serb tried an ill-advised drop-shit which Tsonga retrieved easily and prepared to launch a game-winning forehand. Djokovic, however, guessed Tsonga would go down the line and when Tsonga did just that, Djokovic blocked a backhand volley into the open court for a winner. He then won the next two points to force the decisive fourth-set tiebreaker.

Both players were back on top of their games at this point, so Djokovic’s dominance in the tiebreaker can only be attributed to his experience of having been deep in Grand Slams before, including the final of the U.S. Open in 2007. For Tsonga, who had never been past the fourth round of any Grand Slam event prior to this Australian Open, it was not overly surprising that his nerves finally showed. Yes, the newcomer who had stolen the heats of the Melbourne faithful was human after all.

When Tsonga sprayed one last forehand wide, Djokovic took the tiebreaker 7-2 to win his first Grand Slam title.

Thumbs Up: To both players, for the quality of this match, their shockingly high level of play throughout the tournament, and for the way they handled themselves in the trophy ceremony.

Thumbs Down: The 2008 Australian Open, which has to go down as one of the most thrilling Grand Slams in recent memory, is finally over.

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Australian Open Day 14 Preview

Australian Open Championship Preview: Novak Djokovic vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

It’s not Federer-Nadal. It’s not No. 1 vs. No. 2. It’s not a final matchup that anyone could have ever expected. But it’s one that should have all tennis fans buzzing with excitement. It’s Novak Djokovic against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the championship of the 2008 Australian Open.

Giant-killers Novak Djokovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will meet on Sunday night in Rod Laver Arena to battle for the 2008 Australian Open title. While fans were surely expecting a Roger Federer-Rafael Nadal showdown, instead they will be treated to two players who are as hot as the Melbourne summer sun.

Hot? More like positively on fire. The third-seeded Djokovic has not lost a single set throughout his run to the final. He’s taken out Benjamin Becker, Simone Bolelli, Sam Querrey, 19th-seeded Lleyton Hewitt, and fifth-seeded David Ferrer. And all of that was just the appetizer. On Friday night Djokovic served up the main course with a stunning straight-set knockout of top-ranked Roger Federer. The Serb outplayed Federer in all facets of the game en route to 7-5, 6-3, 7-6(5) victory.

Tsonga has been no less impressive. The unseeded Frenchman has already pulled off four headline-stealing upsets on his way to becoming the most recent addition to a long line of historical Australian Open surprises. After sending ninth-seeded Andy Murray on his way home in the first round, Tsonga routed Sam Warburg and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez before resuming his trek on the upset trail. He then manhandled fellow Frenchman and eighth-seeded Richard Gasquet in four sets and wiped out fourteenth-seeded Mikhail Youzhny in three quick ones. Like Djokovic, as impressive as the first five wins were, Tsonga saved his best for last. In a dizzying display of power, touch, and downright out-of-his-mind tennis, he destroyed Rafael Nadal in the Thursday night semifinal 6-2, 6-3, 6-2. The second seed did not even play poorly, as he hit 13 winners to just a miniscule 12 unforced errors, but he was no match for Tsonga, who blasted 49 winners in just three short sets.

Djokovic will be taking part in his second—and second consecutive—Grand Slam final. The Serb finished runner-up to Federer at last year’s U.S. Open. Tsonga has never experienced anything close to what the atmosphere will be like on Sunday. Not only is this his first Grand Slam final (it was also his first Grand Slam quarterfinal and semifinal), but this is his first final in any ATP Tour level event. While the pressure will be immense, if Tsonga’s previous six matches are any indication, the 22-year-old should have little to no problem with nerves.

He’ll have to do a lot more than overcome nerves in this first-ever head-to-head meeting between the two finalists. Just as he did against Nadal in the semis, Tsonga will have to bring a wide variety of play to the table when he faces Djokovic. His opponent has been completely teeing off on the ball from the baseline throughout the fortnight and Djokovic has just finished overwhelming baseline grinder David Ferrer and world No. 1 Roger Federer in groundstroke battles. Even if Tsonga’s forehand is on like it was against Nadal, the Frenchman will still have to follow his shots into the net in order to shorten points, eliminate grueling rallies from the backcourt, and keep Djokovic off balance. As he showed us in the semifinals, Tsonga’s deft net game is far too good to waste.

The odds are with Djokovic simply because he has been on this stage before and he also has unparalleled confidence from having just dominated the best player in the world. But with the way things are going for this Tsonga kid right now, the outcome could not be further from a foregone conclusion.

Only one thing is certain. If Novak Djokovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga play at level they’ve somehow managed to sustain this whole tournament, it will be an Australian Open final to remember forever.


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Australian Open Day 12

- Whoa! Just when we thought the 2008 Australian Open could not produce anything more shocking than some of the stuff we've already witnessed, Novak Djokovic stunned No. 1 Roger Federer in straight sets on Friday night.

- Looking good: Djokovic still has not lost a set the entire tournament.

- Thumbs up: Djokovic, especially for the way he responded to intense pressure in the third set while trying to close out the match.

- Thumbs down: Anyone who doesn't like tennis.

- Day 13 Outlook: It's rest day before the men's singles final. The calm before the surprising Tsonga-Djokovic storm. We do, however, have the men's doubles final with Jonathan Erlich and Andy Ram taking on Arnaud Clement and Michael Llodra.


Australian Open Day 11

- JO. WILFRIED. TSONGA. He absolutely decimated Rafael Nadal in straight sets. The Frenchman was on fire the whole night, but especially in the second and third sets, when he was coming up with spectacular forehands and ridiculous drop-volleys all over the place. Nadal even played a pretty good match, but he was simply no contest.

- Looking good: Tsonga. You can't predict him playing that way again in the final, but if he does, I feel sorry for Federer or Djokovic.

- Thumbs up: Tsonga. For everything in every way.

- Thumbs down: Nothing you can say but bad luck for Rafael Nadal. Like Andy Roddick against Philipp Kohlschreiber, he simply ran into a player who could not be stopped.

- Day 12 Outlook: Roger Federer vs. Novak Djokovic. The good news, for Djokovic and for people who are interested in watching a match that lives up to expectations, is that Federer has looked beatable. Mostly his vulnerability showed in the third-round epic against Janko Tipsarevic, but Tomas Berdych and James Blake also had a few chances. Djokovic has not dropped a set this entire tournament, so all signs point to a well-contested match.


Australian Open Day 10

Semifinal Australian Open Preview: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Rafael Nadal

Often a tournament to produce a surprise Grand Slam finalist, the Australian Open has yet another chance of doing the same in 2008 with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who is looking to pull off another huge upset. The victim this time would be second-seeded and three-time Grand Slam champion Rafael Nadal.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will take on favored Rafael Nadal in the first semi-final match of the 2008 Australian Open on Thursday night in Rod Laver Arena. Having already reached both his first Grand Slam quarterfinal and semifinal in Melbourne, the Frenchman seeks to record his fourth headline-making upset of the tournament in order to advance to his first slam final. Nadal, meanwhile, will be trying to make his first-ever final appearance Down Under.

Other than the incredible third round that delivered several epic matches worthy of living in Australian Open lore, Tsonga has been the story of the tournament. The 22-year-old made a statement from the very beginning of the fortnight, upsetting ninth-seeded Andy Murray in a fourth-set tiebreaker. Tsonga then rolled through each of his next two matches in straights sets before sending friend and compatriot Richard Gasquet home in four sets. The scoreline suggested a close contest, but in reality Tsonga dictated play throughout the proceedings and pretty much dominate the eighth seed. As if that wasn’t enough to prove he belonged with the elite, Tsonga used his overwhelming power to roll over the 14th-seeded and previously on-fire Mikhail Youzhny 7-5, 6-0, 7-6(6) in the quarterfinals.

While Nadal’s run to the semi-final was expected and therefore not as newsworthy as Tsonga’s breakout, the Spaniard has been no less impressive. In fact Nadal has not dropped a single set in five matches. Granted his draw has not been nearly as tough as Tsonga’s, but he has made quick work of the hands he’s been dealt. After easing past three relatively unheralded foes in the first three rounds, Nadal blew Paul-Henri Mathieu off the court in the fourth round (the Frenchman retired in the second set) and then erased Jarkko Nieminen in straight sets in the quarterfinals.

Tsonga and Nadal have faced each other once in their careers, and that came less than five months ago at another hard-court Grand Slam, the U.S. Open. Nadal triumphed in the third-round clash 7-6(3), 6-2, 6-1. The Plexicushion surface in Australia should give the Spaniard an even greater advantage, but with the way Tsonga is playing right now, a much tougher match can only be expected.

While Tsonga is more than adequate from the baseline, he cannot afford to spend the day going toe-to-toe with Nadal in grueling groundstroke slugfests. Although Tsonga’s huge forehand would win him a number of those points, Nadal’s heavy topspin forehand, relentless pressure, and his ability to get almost any ball back would eventually wear down the Frenchman. Instead, Tsonga must follow his big serve and forehand into the net, where he can force the issue and shorten the points. That should help keep Nadal out of a baseline rhythm.

Expect Nadal to try throwing Tsonga off by giving the underdog various looks when returning serve. Most of the time the Spaniard will step back way behind the baseline in order to give himself more time to read Tsonga’s serve and react. As long as Nadal merely gets the ball back in play with at least some depth, he should have the advantage once a rally begins. At other times, however, he’ll step forward and take his opponent’s serve early and on the rise just to give Tsonga something to think about.

When it’s all said and done, Tsonga should be able to power his way to at least one set as long as he is serving like he did against Youzhny. Nadal, however, will come through in four sets and advance to his first Australian Open final.


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- No surprises on this day. Roger Federer sent James Blake packing in three sets, the first two of which were well-contested, and Novak Djokovic eliminated David Ferrer in straight sets. Ferrer did not put up much of a fight until the end of the third set, but at that point he really put up on hell of a fight. He had Djokovic completely gassed, but the Serb was able to pull out the set. It's a good thing he did, because Ferrer will gladly spend all day long on the court and he could have given the third seed trouble in the fourth and in potential fifth.

- Looking good: Djokovic has been on fire the entire tournament and Federer, as usual, is heating up as the tournament goes on. He hasn't dropped a set since prevailing in the epic five-set clash with Janko Tipsarevic. The semi-final matchup should be awesome.

- Thumbs up: All four guys. Federer and Djokovic are looking strong heading into their semi-final showdown and Blake and Ferrer both enjoyed good showings at the Aussie Open.

- Thumbs down: It would have been nice to see both Blake and Ferrer pull off at least one set each, but alas they did their best.

- Day 11 Outlook: Rafael Nadal vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. See preview above.


Australian Open Day 9

- After one expected result and one surprise, the first semi-final of the 2008 Australian Open is set: 2nd seeded Rafael Nadal against unseeded Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. These two played at the U.S. Open last year and Nadal erased the fast-rising Frenchman in straight sets. The court Down Under should suit Nadal's game even better, but Tsonga is simply on fire, so don't count him out just yet.

- Looking good: Both Nadal and Tsonga are just completely in command of their games right now. Nadal has not yet dropped a set and Tsonga has pulled off three big upsets now.

- Thumbs up: Tsonga. Plain and simple it has been a coming out party for the 22-year-old.

- Thumbs down: Mikhail Youzhny. What happened? He had a great chance to make his first ever Grand Slam final after destroying Ivo Karlovic and Nikolay Davydenko in consecutive matches. But with his straight-set loss to Tsonga, that hope is lost.

- Day 10 Outlook: We have the second day of quarterfinal action with the top half of the draw: Novak Djokovic vs. David Ferrer during the day and Roger Federer vs. James Blake for the night session. Blake will have his hands full, but his confidence could not be any higher than it is right now. Djokovic and Ferrer squared off at the U.S. Open last year and this one should be another entertaining match. I'm looking for Federer and Djokovic to both come through in four sets -- Federer in 3 if he gets his act together.

QUARTERFINALS (BOTTOM HALF OF THE DRAW) ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

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Australian Open Day 8

- The top half the draw produced nothing of the same stuff it did the previous. There were no surprises and little drama. During the day James Blake gave young, up-and-coming Croat Marin Cilic a free tennis lesson and Roger Federer rolled over Tomas Berdych with relative ease in straight sets. He did have to fend off a few set points in the second. At night, Novak Djokovic struggled a bit in the first set, but pulled that out and then blew a tired Lleyton Hewitt off the court. David Ferrer ended the impressive three-match run of fellow Spaniard Juan Carlos Ferrero, who had destroyed David Nalbandian in his previous match. Ferrer dropped the second set, but got through in four.

- Looking good: All four of those guys, but especially (and in order) Djokovic, Ferrer, and Blake. Federer is doing fine, but he has obviously looked better.

- Thumbs up: Berdych for actually showing a decent effort despite being overmatched.

- Thumbs down: Berdych for basically giving away the set points he had in the second.

- Day 9 Outlook: We have the first day of quarterfinal action with the bottom half of the draw: Rafael Nadal vs. Jarkko Nieminen during the day and Mikhail Youzhny vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga by night. See the video for analysis and predictions.

FOURTH ROUND TOP HALF OF THE DRAW ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS
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Australian Open Day 7

- Well, Day 7 certainly allowed tennis fans to  come back to earth after the dizzying 30-hour stretch over the previous two days. It was never expected to produce anything like what we say i the night session of Day 5 and the entire Day 6, but Sunday really was a letdown in the truest sense of the word. Mikhail Youzhny utterly destroyed Nikolay Davydenko it what was supposed to be a toss-up all-Russian affair and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga completely controlled his all-French match with Richard Gasquet even though the score made it look closer than it really was. Two days after putting on a legendary display of tennis against Andy Roddick, Philipp Kohlschreiber could barely hit a ball in the court in a four-set loss to Jarkko Nieminen. Then in the night session, Paul-Henri Mathieu retired in the second set to end his misery at the hands of Rafael Nadal.

- Looking good: Youzhny and Tsonga are both simply on fire this tournament. Their fourth-round meeting should produce some fun, thrilling tennis. Nadal was playing by far his best tennis of the Aussie Open when Mathieu retired.

- Thumbs up: Jarkko Nieminen. I swear I don't know how this guy keeps doing this at Grand Slam events. I know he is rock solid in every aspect of the game, but he doesn't have the weapons of any of the guys still left in the tournament.

- Thumbs down: Davydenko - he didn't even pretend to suggest he had a chance against Youzhny after the opening set. Kohlschreiber - complete collapse of his game in a span of just two days.

- Day 8 Outlook: Mercifully we are getting back to the top half of the draw. It will be very interesting to see how Federer bounces back from his epic five-set win over Tipsarevic. Chances are he will do so in dominant fashion, and Tomas Berdych really shouldn't be able to do anything to stop it. Will Marin Cilic look like the same kid he was in his Day 5 upset of 2007 finalist Fernando Gonzalez when he takes on comeback kid James Blake? Juan Carlos Ferrero and David Ferrer--both of whom have been extremely impressive so far--should engage in a grueling baseline slugfest. If that's not enough, the night session has the colossal Djokovic-Hewitt matchup. Will Hewitt recover to produce the same heroics he did against Baghdatis two nights ago?


Australian Open Day 6

- When Australians woke up on Saturday morning to the ugly site, I bet they had no idea they would be treated to one of the greatest days in tennis history. From James Blake, to Roger Federer and Janko Tipsarevic, to Lleyton Hewitt and Marcos Baghdatis, what the tennis world witnessed today (and if you also count the Roddick-Kohlschreiber match that lasted into the wee hours of Saturday morning) will last forever. More on all of this in article form later, but for now let's move on.

- Looking good: Tomas Berdych (a four-set winner over Juan Monaco) and Novak Djokovic (a straight-set winner over Sam Querrey). With the way Djokovic has looked and with Tipsarevic extending Federer to the brink of elimination, could the Serb have a real chance in the potential semi-final showdown?

- Thumbs up: To the sport of tennis. I don't think there's any other way to say it.

- Thumbs down: Fernando Gonzalez. Defending all of those points from his run to the final last year, the Chilean flamed out to young Croat Marin Cilic in four sets. Gonzalez will fall out of the Top 20 when the rankings come out the day after the Australian Open.

- Day 7 Outlook: Oh my, the shoes Day 7 has to fill. It's an impossible task. But that doesn't mean we won't see some more good tennis on Sunday. An all-Russian affair (Davydenko and Youzhny) and an all-French affair (Gasquet and Tsonga) should make tennis fans who are still hungry for more salivating. All four of those guys have been spectacular so far Down Under. Also don't forget that we still have Juan Carlos Ferrero vs. David Nalbandian left over from yesterday due to rain. Finally, will Philipp Kohlschreiber be able to keep up his unparalleled level of play when he takes on Jarkko Nieminen?


Australian Open Day 5

- Ladies and gentlemen, it's only January 18th and we already have seen what will most likely be the match of the year on the ATP Tour. That's right, Andy Roddick and Philipp Kohlschreiber battled well into the night (and by night I mean after 2:00 in the morning) on Rod Laver Arena. At long last the German prevailed 8-6 in the fifth set. There was not one break of serve over the final three sets until Kohlschreiber broke Roddick at 7-6 in the final frame to take the match. Kohlschreiber fired an unimaginable 104 winners, including 32 aces, to just 33 unforced errors. It was a performances for the ages, but let's not forget about Roddick. The American blasted 42 aces and 79 winners in all as opposed to just 24 unforced errors. Only time will tell if this epic is remembered as fondly as the Roddick-El Aynaoui quarterfinal Aussie Open clash from 2003, but in terms of quality this one is better than anything in recent memory. Any more words wouldn't do it justice, so just check out the laughably outrageous match stats.

- Looking good: Mikhail Youzhny (he absolutely destroyed big-serving Ivo Karlovic in straight sets) and Nikolay Davydenko (still hasn't dropped a set this tournament). It's a shame these two have to play in the fourth round because it looks they are two of the most in-form players in the draw at the moment.

- Thumbs down: Mardy Fish. The American was looking great through two rounds and a set of his match with Jarkko Nieminen, but it was all downhill after that and Fish went away mentally. Very disappointing end to what once was a promising tournament (especially because of the soft draw) for Fish.

- Day 6 Outlook: It will be an unbelievable atmosphere for the match of the day, as Lleyton Hewitt will take on Marcos Baghdatis during the night session. With hometown favorite Hewitt and with all that's gone on surrounding Baghdatis already this week, this one will be wild. Juan Carlos Ferrero and David Nalbandian is another blockbuster matchup. Ferrero has been on fire so far and Nalbandian has looked human at a few points in both of his matches, so this one should be close. Fernando Gonzalez could have a tricky time with up-and-coming Croat Marin Cilic.

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Australian Open Day 4

- Just when you thought the Australian Open would be somewhat up for grabs in 2008, ROger Federer goes out and does THAT in the first two rounds of the tournament. Two days after abusing Diego Hartfield in Rod Laver Arena, Federer came back out and annihilated Fabrice Santoro 6-1, 6-2, 6-0. The world No. 1 struck 53 winners to just 18 unforced errors in another virtually flawless performance. The message has been sent loud and clear: Federer is not about to invite any other player near his party at the top of the ATP rankings.

- The Aussie Open got it's first 5-set night match of the year from fan favorites Marat Safin and Marcos Baghdatis. Safin came back from two sets down to fourth a fifth set, but the Cypriot outlasted him 6-2 in the final frame. It wasn't exactly a top-notch match as both players had far more errors than winners, but it was still wildly entertaining and made for a great atmosphere inside Melbourne Park.

- Looking good: Federer, Baghdatis, James Blake, Tomas Berdych, Novak Djokovic, Juan Carlos Ferrero.

- Thumbs up: Veteran Sebastien Grosjean and youngster Robin Haase for putting on a spectacular five-set show in front of a great atmosphere on the outer courts. It showed there is still life in Grosjean yet, while the 2008 Aussie Open signals the beginning of Haase making a name for himself. And Sam Querrey, who is suddenly playing superb tennis and upset Dmitry Tursunov for arguably the biggest win of his young career.

- Thumbs down: Tursunov. He has all the necessary talent and it often shows in smaller events, but when will the Russian come up big at a Grand Slam?

- Day 5 Outlook: The bottom half of the draw takes back to the court and let's hope it produces some more enthralling tennis than it did on Day 3. Highlighting the proceedings will be Mikhail Youzhny and Ivo Karlovic. It's the most enticing matchup of the day and both men have a chance to go on to achieve their best Grand Slam showing ever. Philipp Kohlschreiber could give Andy Roddick his first test of the tournament. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Richard Gasquet appear poised to set up a titanic fourth-round collision. Mardy Fish looks to build upon his blowout win over Tommy Robredo when he faces another seed in Finn Jarkko Nieminen. Rafael Nadal, meanwhile, should continue to cruise at the very bottom of the draw as he takes on unheralded 28-seed Gilles Simon.

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Australian Open Day 3

- The bottom half of the draw is billed as by far the weaker of the two halves and it sure lived up to its billing on Wednesday. There was not one five-set match in the second round, and only five of the sixteen matches went to four sets. That's crazy! The closest match was probably Youzhny against Seppi, in which the Russian prevailed in a fourth-set tiebreaker. I can't say there was a really a match of the day or even an unusually huge win or upset, but the performances of the day were by Richard Gasquet and Mardy Fish. Gasquet hit 35 winners to just 12 unforced errors in a 6-2 6-1, 6-3 destruction of Feliciano Lopez. Fish destroyed Tommy Robredo 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 to get revenge on his crushing five-set loss to the Spaniard in the second round of the U.S. Open just four months ago.

- Looking good: Fish, Gasquet, Rafael Nadal, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Nikolay Davydenko.

- Thumbs up: Stefan Koubek, who two days after upsetting Carlos Moya in the first round, took out Agustin Calleri in straight sets. Also to Philipp Kohlschreiber, who has won six straight sets (the last was by default today against Korolev) over two matches.

- Day 4 Outlook: Melbourne Park should have a much better day on its hands as the top half of the draw takes to the court for round 2. The blockbuster matchup is between 2005 Australian Open champion Marat Safin and 2006 runner-up Marcos Baghdatis. Not surprisingly, it's the night match in Rod Laver Arena. Federer-Santoro should also be wildly entertaining, even though the score will almost certainly be lopsided. Sam Querrey vs. Dmitry Tursunov could also end up being one of the best matches on Day 4. Querrey, who slumped a bit at the end of 2007, looked impressive against Olivier Rochus in the first round. It will also be important to keep an eye on some never-know-what-your-going-to-get-from-them contenders. Fernando Gonzalez, James Blake, and David Nalbandian will all be in action.

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Australian Open Day 2

- Give it up for the hands-down player of the day, Vince Spadea. Merely beating Radek Stepanek in any fashion would have been a huge upset for the American, but Spadea prevailed in especially shocking style on Tuesday. He quickly dropped the first two sets 6-2, 6-2, and then somehow stormed back to win the third 7-5 before triumphing 6-3 in the fifth. I can't decide who was probably most stunned following the match: Spadea, Stepanek, or tennis fans? Spadea advances to a very winnable second-round clash with German Denis Gremelmayr.

- The Marat Safin-Ernests Gulbis showdown turned out to be a buzzkill, but I guess that's really not too surprising. Either both were going to play well and produce some other-worldly tennis, or both were going to play poorly and produce one of the ugliest, error-filled matches in tennis history, or one was going to play well and the other poorly to produce a lopsided affair. The later is what happened. At least I assume Safin played well, but I didn't see the match so who knows. Give Gulbis just a little bit more time, however, and he'll find some consistency. He is like a Baby Safin right now: when he is on he is unbeatable, and when he is off he is one of the worst players on the ATP Tour.

- Looking good: Safin, Roger Federer (straight-set destruction of Diego Hartfield, James Blake (straights over Massu), Novak Dokovic (straights over Becker), Juan Carlos Ferrero (straights over Kiefer).

- Thumbs up: Spadea, Dmitry Tursunov (came back from two sets down against Malisse), Janko Tipsarevic (won fifth set 6-0 over Sirianni after dropping fourth set 6-0).

- Thumbs down: Radek Stepanek (stunned by Spadea), Ivan Ljubcic (upset loss to Robin Haase does nothing to quiet doubters that he is fading into oblivion), Chris Guccione (another huge start to the year squandered at his hometown Grand Slam, this time to Hyung-Taik Lee in straight sets).

- Day 3 Outlook: It's the bad part of the draw on Day 3 (lower half), but there will still be some intriguing stuff going on. Gasquet-Lopez could be the marquee match, and it will be especially interesting to see how Nadal and Tsonga, both of whom looked good in round one but still come with question marks, are doing. Seeds that could be in trouble on Day 3, in addition to Gasquet, are Robredo, Simon, Kohlschreiber, and perhaps even Jarkko Nieminen against American Jesse Levine.


Australian Open Day 1

- The win of the day has to be Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's upset of 9th-seeded Andy Murray. I had Murray in the semi-finals of my bracket, but I also had Tsonga in my top 20 Aussie Open contenders even though he is not seeded, so I guess I wasn't ENTIRELY wrong! I still thought the Scot had a chance when he was down two sets, and I really thought he had a chance after he bageled Tsonga in the third. The Frenchman even looked hobbled with a minor foot injury in the late stages of the match, but he came through in the clutch (although both players clearly felt the pressure late in the fourth set). Tsonga now has a nice draw until the fourth round, where he could face fellow Frenchman Richard Gasquet. Murray-Gasquet surely would have been great stuff, but Tsonga-Gasquet could be even better!

- Looking good: Nikolay Davydenko, Mikhail Youzhny, Stanislas Wawrinka, Rafael Nadal (all straight-set winners).

- Thumbs up: Tommy Robredo, Jarkko Nieminen (both came back from 2 sets down), Jesse Levine and Sam Warburg (big wins for two young Americans).

- Thumbs down: Carlos Moya (it looked like he was playing well), Donald Young (blew a great chance for a rare Grand Slam match victory), Juan Ignacio Chela (proved his run at U.S. Open was a fluke), and of course Andy Murray (had all kinds of hype surrounding him going into the Australian).

- Day 2 Outlook: Some huge matches on the menu, especially Isner-Santoro and Gulbis-Safin. Others to watch are Baghdatis-Johansson, Hewitt-Darcis, Kiefer-Ferrero, and Haase-Ljubicic.



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Archived thoughts from 2007

Madrid quarterfinal previews and third round match analysis

- Roger Federer vs. Feliciano Lopez: Federer got revenge for two early-season in dominant fashion, destroying Canas 6-0, 6-3. Lopez won the first set over Koubek in a tiebreaker and then rolled in the second set. The Spaniard played some awesome tennis in the second, smashing forehand winners all over the place and even flattening out some nice backhands. Federer beat Lopez at the U.S. Open in September despite dropping the first set. The world No. 1 seems to be really in form this week, so I'm not giving Lopez a set this time around.

- Nicolas Kiefer vs. Fernando Gonzalez: Kiefer upset Karlovic in two tiebreakers in the third round, no small feat considering just how well the 6'