Top 25 French Open Contenders
French Open Preview
For a second there--and the second I am referring to is when foot blisters contributed to a stunning loss to Juan Carlos Ferrero in Rome--it looked like the French Open would be more wide open than usual. Well, so much for that. Just a few weeks later, Nadal has established himself as the odds-on favorite to capture his fourth-straight French Open title. Why is he the overwhelming favorite and the indisputable No. 1 contender on this list? Let me count thy ways. Nadal has never lost a match in Roland Garros. Yes, let me repeat that. Never. Lost. A. Match. In. Roland. Garros. The Spaniard has played three French Opens and won them all. That means he is bringing a ridiculous, unheard of, intimidating 21-0 record with him into Paris. Aside from his flawless French Open history, Nadal's clay-court efforts in 2008 alone would solidify him as the man to beat this week. He won the Masters Series Monte-Carlo and defeated Ancic, Ferrero, Ferrer, Davydenko, and Federer without losing a single set. One week later he rolled to the Barcelona title. After the setback to Ferro in Rome, Nadal stormed back to win the Masters Series Hamburg. In doing so he made a statement--and kept his No. 2 ranking--by defeating Djokovic and Federer in succession. Nadal is 15-1 on the slow stuff this season and has won a whopping 108 of his last 110 clay matches. Again I think it needs to be stressed that that's no misprint. 108 for 110. Will Nadal go the necessary seven for seven over the next two weeks to capture title number four? The draw is the only real reason why one could even begin to think otherwise. Djokovic being in the bottom half is the key factor. The Serb has the potential for an upset, but perhaps the even greater danger is Djokovic wearing Nadal down in a five-set thriller while Federer cruises easily in the other semifinal. That is Federer's best chance to finally get over the hump against Nadal at the French Open. Other potential obstacles include either David Nalbandian or Nicolas Almagro in the quarterfinals and don't overlook Nadal's little-known first-round opponent, Thomaz Bellucci. The Brazilian has been an absolute terror in clay-court Challenger events this year. Still, Bellucci won't be a problem and chances are neither will anyone else. The smart money is on Nadal going forth for his fourth.
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#2: Roger Federer
Federer is my No. 2 contender for several reasons, but most importantly he is No. 2 (as opposed to No. 3 behind Novak Djokovic) because of the draw. Yes, it's gotten to the point where even Federer needs some luck on his side in order to improve his French Open prospects. Djokovic, of course, is in the bottom half of the draw, leaving him with Nadal to battle it out in a potential semifinal showdown. So instead of seeing Djokovic in his semifinal, Federer would most likely run into either Nikolay Davydenko or David Ferrer. That's no easy task by any means, especially not on clay, but Djokovic is a far different beast at the moment than either Davydenko or Ferrer. Other good draw news for Federer is that the second highest seed player in his quarter is Richard Gasquet. Or should I say "was." The slumping Frenchman would not have been a threat to begin with, but now he isn't even in the tournament, having pulled out citing a knee problem. Now No. 9 seed Stanislas Wawrinka would be Federer's quarterfinal opponent if the seeds hold to form. The reason why Federer was dangerously close to being the No. 3 contender--and the reason why is nowhere near No.1--is that he just has not been the Federer of old in 2008. Shockingly, Federer has won just one of eight tournaments he has played this year, and even that came when Davydenko retired during their title match in Estoril. The No. 1 player in the world lost to Djokovic in the Australian Open semifinals, Andy Murray in Dubai, Mardy Fish in Indian Wells, and Andy Roddick in Miami during the hard-court season. The good news for Federer's French Open prospects is that his clay-court campaign has not really been that bad. Other than a tough loss to Radek Stepanek in Rome, it's been about what you would expect. After winning a Nadal-less tournament in Estoril, Federer lost spirited finals to Nadal in Monte-Carlo and Hamburg in addition to his Rome setback. With Djokovic on Nadal's side in Paris, it's hard to expect anything than a third-straight runner up performance for Federer. With a little luck (and by luck I mean Djokovic beating Nadal or at least wearing him down in a five-set battle), however, Federer just might surprise all by winning his first French Open and completing the career Grand Slam.
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#3: Novak Djokovic
It was almost impossible to decide between Djokovic and Roger Federer without the benefit of seeing the draw. In a head-to-head matchup at the French Open I would lean towards Federer, due to his greater experience (12 Grand Slam titles to Djokovic's one, and two runner-up finishes in Paris) and even more importantly due to his dismantling of Djokovic in Monte-Carlo before the Serb retired in set two. On the other hand, I would lean towards Djokovic in terms of least likely to get upset in Roland Garros before the semifinals. The No. 3 player seems to be having his way with anyone other than Rafael Nadal or Federer at the moment. Since a semifinal setback against Andy Roddick in Dubai, Djokovic has lost just one match to anyone not named Federer or Nadal (that came in a shock second-round loss to Kevin Anderson at the Sony Ericsson Open). Federer, meanwhile, has lost to Andy Murray and Mardy Fish this season to go along with his losses to Roddick (in Miami), Djokovic, and Nadal. He is playing better now, but he just doesn't have the invincible feel anymore against players outside the top three, especially if he runs into some clay-court guru like Nicolas Almagro or David Ferrer. But now to the draw: Djokovic is on Nadal's side, leaving Federer safe in the half with Nikolay Davydenko. The Serb meets Denis Gremelmayr in his opener, could get Guillermo Canas in round three, and Carlos Moya in the fourth round. Any potential quarterfinal opponent does not seem too imposing, but then of course Djokovic would have Nadal in the semifinals. Still, nothing short of a semifinal appearance would be a huge disappointment for Djokovic and even an upset of Nadal is not out the question. After all, he has already won titles this season at the Australian Open, the Masters Series Indian Wells, and the Masters Series Rome. His clay-court exploits in 2008 also include semifinal performances in both Monte-Carlo and Rome. Count on Djokovic making it back to the semifinals, where--just as he did last year--he will have a showdown with three-time defending champion Nadal.
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#4: Nikolay Davydenko
All draws being equal, Davydenko would still be the No. 4 contender due to his performances on the court this season, including some key performances on clay. The best news for Davydenko, however, is that all draws are definitely NOT equal. That coveted number four seed will keep him out of the quarters of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic. So unlike Ferrer and some of those other players in both the top 10 of the rankings and the top 10 of this list, Davydenko is guaranteed to be favored in every match he plays until the semifinals. The same cannot be said for anyone not in the top four. But let's get back to the point about Davydenko being the No. 4 contender regardless of the draw. So far in 2008 he has reached the semifinals in Doha, the fourth round of the Australian Open, the semis in Dubai, the final in Estoril, the semifinals in Monte-Carlo, and of course let's not forget that he captured his biggest title ever at the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami. Just today Davydenko pulled off two wins in Poertschach to reach the semifinals there and he seems poised to put another trophy on the mantle heading into the French Open. The Russian has a 12-4 match record in clay-court tournaments this season and that winning percentage should only improve with his performance in Paris. His last three appearances there have resulted in semifinal, quarterfinal, and semifinal finishes. Given Davydenko's current form and his important, previously-discussed placement in there draw, there is every reason to think he will make it back to the semifinals once again.
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#5: David Ferrer
Ferrer exploded in 2007, establishing himself not only as bigtime dirt-baller, but also as an all-court threat. His hard-court exploits last year included titles in Auckland and Tokyo, and he also reached the quarterfinals in Cincinnati, the semifinals of the U.S. Open, the quarterfinals in Paris, and the final at the year-end Masters Cup. If the Spaniard can do all of that on faster surfaces, what can he do on clay for an encore this year? Well, we've already seen what he can do: Ferrer won it all in Valencia, made it to the quarterfinals in Monte-Carlo, and finished runner-up in Barcelona, where he took a set from Rafael Nadal. However, the grueling clay-court stretch seemed to catch of quickly with Ferrer, who lost his first match in Rome to Radek Stepanek and then lost to compatriot Fernando Verdasco in the third round of the Masters Series Hamburg. Assuming the No. 5 player in the world gets suitable rest after his efforts at the World Team Cup in Dusseldorf this week, he should be poised to tie or equal his best-ever performance at Roland Garros. Ferrer made it to the quarterfinals back in 2005, but in four other appearances he is never advanced past the third round. He has all the physical tools to go deep in Paris and he has never put those tools to use better than he has over the past two seasons. As long as Ferrer keeps his head screwed on and keeps racket-bashing to a minimum, someone is going to have to work outrageously hard to defeat him. Anything short of a quarterfinal appearance would be a huge disappointment and with a little luck, Ferrer has semifinal and even runner-up potential in him.
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#6: Nicolas Almagro
Say what you will about Almagro's hard-court and grass-court game, but if it's a clay-court tournament, Almagro is in it to win it. To say he is a master on the red stuff probably would not even do him justice. The Spaniard has played in seven events on clay in 2008 and he has been eliminated prior to the quarterfinals only once. Almago even won two titles earlier in the season, first in Costa Do Sauipe (over Carlos Moya) and then two weeks later in Acapulco (over David Nalbandian). His other results on the slow stuff include a quarterfinal finish in Buenos Aires, runner-up in Valencia (lost to David Ferrer in a third-set tiebreaker), and quarterfinal showings in both Barcelona (lost to Denis Gremelmayr in a third-set tiebreaker) and Rome (retired to Novak Djokovic). Almagro's only loss before the quarterfinals came in Monte-Carlo, where he won two matches before running into fellow clay-court genius Igor Andreev in the third round. The only blemish on his resume heading into Roland Garros is a wrist injury that forced him to pull out of that Rome quarterfinal clash with Djokovic. It kept Almagro out of Hamburg, but most likely only for precautionary reasons. If Almagro is 100 percent for the French Open he is almost guaranteed to have his best-ever performance, because in four Paris appearances he has a surprisingly poor 3-4 match record. Other than the wrist, a terrible draw is the only--and I mean only--reason why Almagro should not sail through to the quarterfinals.
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#7: Stanislas Wawrinka
Wawrinka was an afterthought for a spot this high just a few months ago, but he came out of the gates on fire in 2008 and has only improved as the season moved to they clay. The Swiss, ever in the shadow of compatriot Roger Federer, opened this year's campaign with a runner-up finish in Doha. After a few lackluster performances, Wawrinka reached the quarterfinals of the Masters Series Indian Wells. He got off to a surprisingly inauspicious start on clay, losing to Tommy Robredo in the first round of the Masters Series Indian Wells, but it was a nonstop joy ride for him in the following weeks. Wawrinka made it to the Barcelona semifinals and then took out Safin, Murray, Ferrero, Blake, and Roddick en route to the Masters Series Rome final (lost to Djokovic in three sets). Surely tired from that brutal stretch and forced to make a quick turnaround in Hamburg, the No. 10 player in the world fell to Nicolas Kiefer in the second round. That loss is most likely an aberration to the rule that was his showings in Barcelona and Rome, and the latter is what we can expect for Wawrinka in Roland Garros. He has only played the French Open three times and has never made it past the third round, but he has also never been playing close to this well at any previous point in his career. With a career-high ranking in hand, Wawrinka will be seeded in the top 10 and therefore should avoid the top dirt-ballers until the fourth round, maybe even the quarterfinals. Barring a bad draw, as quarterfinal finish should be expected.
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#8: Tommy Robredo
At the beginning of 2008 I would have been shocked to know that I would soon have Robredo among the Top 10 contenders at the French Open. After all, the Spaniard was nothing short of atrocious on the hard courts earlier this season. Even though Robredo is only 26 years old, it's no secret that at this point in his career he is a threat on clay and clay only. Still, his hard-court form from January to March was even worse than what should be expected. He lost in the first round in straight sets in each of his first two tournaments then got absolutely decimated by Mardy Fish in the second round of the Australian Open. Robredo then lost to Nicolas Mahut in two sets in Rotterdam and followed that up with blowout losses to slumping Ivan Ljubicic in the third round at the Masters Series Indian Wells and to Dudi Sela in the second round at the Masters Series Miami. The No. 16 player in the world can almost be counted on to turn things around on the dirt, but those results were so bad I wasn't sure he could this time around. But Robredo has. He reached the semifinals in Valencia to kick off his clay-court campaign and then scored impressive victories over Robin Soderling and Stanislas Wawrinka in Monte-Carlo before falling to David Nalbandian. Robredo built on that success with consecutive quarterfinal finishes in Barcelona and Rome. His scalps during that stretch included Guillermo Canas, Juan Ignacio Chela, and Nikolay Davydenko. Robredo's run in Hamburg ended a bit prematurely with a third-set-tiebreaker loss to Ivo Karlovic, but that was not before he pulled out a tough three-setter against German hope Philipp Kohlschreiber in round one. Tennis fans have every reason to count on Robredo's solid form continuing in Roland Garros, a place that he has simply loved in the past. He has played it seven times and has not once been eliminated before the third round. His performances are as follows: fourth round, third round, quarterfinals, fourth round, quarterfinals, fourth round, quarterfinals. Robredo will once again be get a great seed in Paris and that should allow him to roll right back to round four. If he can avoid the top three players in his eighth of the draw, Robredo should equal his three best-ever performances.
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#9: Juan Carlos Ferrero
Five years after his French Open title--and five years after he briefly became No. 1 in the world--Ferrero is far more inconsistent now, but still very dangerous. Well, still dangerous on clay at least, and that's all that matters heading into Roland Garros. Last week at the Masters Series Rome, Ferrero stunned Rafael Nadal 7-5, 6-1 in the second round. Doubters might say that the only reason Ferrero won is because Nadal had serious blisters on his feet--and Nadal certainly did have serious blisters--but Ferrero was simply sensational and it's impossible to say for sure that he would not have defeated even a 100-percent Nadal. The 23rd-ranked player also posted a win over Nicolas Kiefer in the first round of Rome, although he fell Stanislas Wawrinka just one day after pulling off the huge upset. As an indication of his inconsistency, Ferrero lost to Marat Safin in the first round of Valencia to kick off his clay-court campaign. That's not an absolutely terrible loss, as the Russian is starting to play better, but match against Safin on clay is one Ferrero should win. The Spaniard bounced back in Monte-Carlo with victories over Michael Llodra and Jarkko Nieminen, but he ran into Nadal in round three and could not produce the same kind of tennis that he would one week later in Rome. There's not much use in discussing Ferrero's hard-court stretch earlier this season, because a much different player on the dirt at this point in his career (he is 28-years-old), but I will anyway. Ferrero started 2008 off by finishing runner-up in Adelaide and then he crushed David Nalbandian at the Australian Open en route to a fourth-round appearance. After that it was all downhill for Ferrero, who basically waited for the clay to resurrect his game. It did, and there's no reason to think his level won't continue to rise in Paris. After all, the French Open has been extremely kind to Ferrero in the past. In addition to his 2003 triumph, he reached the semifinals in 2000 and 2001 (lost to Gustavo Kuerten both times) and the final in 2002 (lost to Albert Costa). His last three appearances in Roland Garros resulted in third-round performances; nothing more, nothing less. Despite his age he is actually playing better now than in more recent years so a run beyond the third round this time around would not be surprising, and maybe even should be expected. Expecting a return to the semis, however, is unrealistic--probably even if Ferrero happens to be in the quarter of the draw that lacks Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic.
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#10: David Nalbandian
After a brief streak of healthy players on this list, we're back into the realm of the banged-up with not only Gonzalez, but to an even greater extent David Nalbandian. It's unclear whether or not an arm problem has been the main culprit for Nalbandian's recent malaise on the court, but the bottom line is he has not been getting it done as you would expect on clay. It's been an up-and-down 2008 for the Argentine on both hard courts and the dirt. He suffered a dismal three-set massacre at the hands of Juan Carlos Ferrero in the third round of the Australian Open, but bounced right back to win a clay-court title in Buenos Aires. Nalbandian followed that up with a runner-up finish in Acapulco, where he lost to Nicolas Almagro in the final. His spring hard-court season started off well enough, with a trip to the quarterfinals in Indian Wells. Immediately thereafter, however, the No. 7 player in the world crashed of Miami in his first match against Xavier Malisse. Not surprisingly it was time for another resurrection in his game as the season turned back to the red stuff. Nalbandian posted two big Davis Cup wins (including 9-7 in the fifth set over Robin Soderling) and then won two matches in Monte-Carlo (including a 6-1, 6-0 destruction of Tommy Robredo) before falling to Roger Federer in three sets. The next ebb in the ebb-and-flow trend of Nalbandian's season came with a blowout loss to Stanislas Wawrinka in the third round of Barcelona, and he lost his first match in Rome to Nicolas Almagro in straight sets. Nalbandian has not played since, so he'll be bringing a lot of questions marks about his game into Roland Garros, a place where he has enjoyed success in the past. In his last four French Open appearances he has not once been eliminated before the fourth round. That impressive stretch included semifinal finishes in 2004 (lost to eventual champ Gaston Gaudio) and 2006 (lost to Roger Federer). The odds are against him making it that far this time around, but you just never know when Nalbandian is going to catch fire. The other good news is that his stellar seeding should allow him to avoid Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic at any point before the quarterfinals, so a quarterfinal showing really wouldn't be all that shocking.
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#11: Fernando Gonzalez
Gonzalez's talent is undeniable. Unfortunately, so is his inconsistency. It's been that way for the Chilean once again in 2008. His year started with a disappointing third-round loss to Marin Cilic at the Australian Open, but Gonzalez bounced right back to win a clay-court tournament in Vina Del Mar, Chile. Back on the hard courts, Gonzalez lost early-round matches to Evgeny Korolev, Mario Ancic, Guillermo Canas, and even to Chris Guccione in a Challenger event. When the season returned to the red stuff, the No. 22 ranked player in the world promptly took home the trophy in Munich. Gonzalez's stellar form on clay continued with wins over Janko Tipsarevic and Korolev in Rome, but a right leg injury halted his progress and prevented him from playing his next scheduled match against Nicolas Almagro. Gonzalez is not in Hamburg this week, but reportedly he will be 100 percent for Roland Garros. He'll have to be if he has hopes of justifying this ranking with a run to the second week of the French Open. He has made it that far just once before, back in 2003 when he reached the quarterfinals. In his last four appearances Gonzalez has two first-round exits, a second-round departure, and a third-round setback at the hands of Roger Federer in 2005. Gonzalez is so inconsistent that it is risky to predict a return to the quarterfinals, but he certainly has the talent for it. As evidenced by his run to the 2007 Australian Open final (among many other examples), when Gonzalez is in form and on fire he has is almost impossible to beat. At those times it's even hard for opponents to stay on the same court with him. Combine that talent with his favorite surface, clay, and what you have is a dangerous player that nobody really wants to face. Neither a first-round loss nor a run back to the quarterfinals would be surprising from Gonzalez this time in Paris.
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#12: Igor Andreev
Andreev has no business being outside the top 10 on a list of contenders at any clay-court tournament. I know that, all tennis fans should know that, and Andreev himself knows that. Unfortunately the results just don't justify a position higher than No. 12 at the moment. Andreev's clay-court campaign this season has been solid, but far from the spectacular that you would expect. The Russian's first clay-court swing back in February featured a quarterfinal appearance in Buenos Aires (lost to Jose Acasuso in three sets), but it also included two disappointing first-round losses to Eduardo Schwank in Costa Do Sauipe and Albert Montanes in Acapulco. During the current stretch on dirt, Andreev made it to the quarterfinals at the Masters Series Monte-Carlo and the third round of the Masters Series Rome, where he played a high-quality match against Novak Djokovic only to fall in three sets. The No. 26 player in the world, however, also fell in the first round of Valencia to Evgeny Korolev and dropped a second-round contest to Juan Martin Del Potro in Munich. Some hard-court showings were especially impressive for Andreev, who reached the quarterfinals both in Dubai and at the Masters Series Miami. If he can do that on hard courts, what should he be able to do on his most preferred surface in Roland Garros? Well, clearly Andreev has to find some sort of consistency if he wants to make a deep run at the French Open. He did exactly that in 2007, making it to the quarterfinals before losing to Djokovic. Andreev has made three trips to the French and he has never been eliminated before the third round. He will get a nice seed there this year, so it would be surprising if he did not progress at least that far once again. If Andreev can find his normal clay-court form and also get a somewhat favorable draw, there is absolutely no other reason why he can't make it back to the quarterfinals.
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#13: Guillermo Canas
Canas is going downhill...and apparently pretty fast. If I make a revised Top 25 list right before the French Open he most likely wouldn't be anywhere on it, but as of two weeks ago I still felt OK about his chances. Since then, however, Canas' results have been less than stellar. The Argentine won two matches in Barcelona, but then got crushed by Tommy Robredo. In Rome he barely survived Gianluca Naso in the first round before putting up little resistance in a straight-set loss to Roger Federer. Worst of all, in an opening-round match in Hamburg today, Canas fell to Michael Llodra in two sets. The Frenchman has had a great year in singles so far, but on clay he is someone Canas has absolutely no business losing to. Canas is 30 years old now, and after a resurgent 2007 campaign, it seems like his age might finally be catching up with him. Nonetheless, there is hope for Canas yet. Despite his age, he is still one of the fastest players on tour and a flat-out grinder. Sure he doesn't have huge weapons, but Canas makes fewer unforced errors than almost any other player and he makes opponents work outrageously hard to beat him (at least when is playing well, unlike right now). Playing best three-out-of-five matches at Roland Garros should help Canas turn things around. The red clay in Paris has certainly been kind to him in the past. Canas is a three-time quarterfinalist (2002, 2005, and 2007). Since 2001 his only result worse than fourth-round appearance (other than missing the event twice) was a five-set first-round loss in 2004 to eventual champion Gaston Gaudio. Canas is probably going to be one of the last players seeded, so in the third round he most likely face one of the top guys. An exit at that point is likely, but if he can avoid Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic in his section, a trip back to the fourth round is not beyond imagination.
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#14: Mario Ancic
No, this isn't Wimbledon. It's the French Open. But Ancic has stormed out of injury oblivion and proved this season that he is an all-court force to be reckoned with. He was still out with various back and shoulder injuries during the Australian Open, but when the 6'5'' Croat was ready to return, he returned with a bang. Ancic reached the final in Marseille--his first event of 2008--and then made it to the semifinals in Zagreb. At the Masters Series Indian Wells he took out Gael Monfils and Fernando Gonzalez before losing to Juan Carlos Ferrero, albeit in a third-set tiebreaker. Ancic then won three three-set thrillers in Miami, falling to eventual champion Nikolay Davydenko 7-5 in the third set in round four. His clay-court campaign has been unspectacular due to tough draws, but it has been truly stellar nonetheless. Ancic eased past Ivo Minar in Monte-Carlo, but had to play Rafael Nadal in the second round. He then crushed Mischa Zverev and Andy Murray in Barcelona before falling to clay-court wizard Nicolas Almagro. In Rome he rolled over Feliciano Lopez, but Nikolay Davydenko awaited in the second round and again got the better of Ancic. It's clear from all this that the big-serving Ancic is not just a serve; he moves extremely well for a player of his size, his groundstrokes are surprisingly solid, and with his wingspan he is lethal up at net. Most importantly, Ancic is healthier than ever and that is great news for his French Open prospects. Ancic has played Roland Garros four times (he missed it last year) and his results are second round, third round, third round, and most recently a quarterfinal appearance in 2006. That's impressive stuff. Ancic will be unseeded since his ranking is lower than it should be due to injury, so he will be at the mercy of the draw, but with a little help he could easily be around for the second week.
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#15: Juan Monaco
Monaco is currently ranked a career-high No. 14 in the world thanks not only to a breakout 2007 campaign, but also a strong start to this season. The Argentine reached the semifinals in Auckland to begin the year and after a third-round appearance at the Australian Open, he made it to the final in Vina Del Mar. At that point, however, an ankle injury he sustained in doubles prevented him from playing the title match against Fernando Gonzalez and Monaco really has never gotten back on track. Still, Monaco has not lost in the first round of any event since his first tournament back from the injury, and reached the quarterfinals in Valencia three weeks ago. Having to play clay-court master Nicolas Almagro both there and in Monte-Carlo--and then Igor Andreev in the second round of Rome--certainly has not aided Monaco's progress. Although Monaco's clay-court prowess is inspiring, it's clearly not on the same tier as that of, say, Almagro or Andreev. Last year when completely healthy, Monaco won clay-court titles in Buenos Aires, Poertschach, and Kitzbuhel and reached the fourth round of the French Open. The injury and some tough-luck draw have not allowed Monaco to enjoy quited as much success so far in his 2008 efforts, but that could all change at the French Open. He is not someone who any player will want to face early on--or at any point for that matter--in Roland Garros, and with such a strong ranking, Monaco should be able to get at least a fairly decent draw. A fourth-round performance is certainly not out of the question, and if he can somehow find himself in a section of the draw devoid of Rafael Nadal and other real clay-court geniuses, I wouldn't even put a quarterfinal appearance past him.
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#16: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Like several of the French Open contenders already on this list, Tsonga is dealing with physical problems of his own. But the injury news is not all bad for the Frenchman. Tsonga lost in the first round of the Masters Series Rome this week to countryman Gilles Simon, but after the match he said his knee felt fine. Prior to Rome, Tsonga had not been able to play since bowing out of the Masters Series Miami in the third round. All signs point to Tsonga being ready to go for Hamburg, and that tournament will be essential for his Roland Garros preparation, as Tsonga has played just one match (the loss to Simon) on clay this entire season. The 17th-ranked player in the world is not exactly a terror on the dirt to begin with; he has played the French Open just once at got blown out by Andy Roddick in the first round. In fairness to Tsonga, that came way back in 2005 before he had really come into his own in professional tennis. This might be hard to believe, but Tsonga as never won an ATP match on clay; not one. Then again he has only played two, due to myriad injury problems over the past few years. Despite all those things going against him, Tsonga has talent that is simply undeniable. Never has it been on display more than it was at this year's Australian Open, where Tsonga steamrolled his way to the final before losing to Novak Djokovic. He has all the tools to be successful on any surface and he thrives on the big stages, so if he is feeling 100 percent later this month, there is no reason why he can't put on another good show in front of the French fans. Just as with the other players currently on this list, anywhere from a first-round exit to a fourth-round appearance for Tsonga would not be surprising.
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#17: Mikhail Youzhny
Unfortunately we have another top player dealing with an injury at the moment in 12th-ranked Mikhail Youzhny. Whereas Berdych would be considerably higher on this list if he had no no physical issues, Youzhny probably doesn't deserve to be much higher than 17th anyway. The Russian, somewhat surprisingly, just has never been overwhelming on clay. He is 8-7 lifetime at the French Open and has reached the fourth round just once (last year). Inconsistency is the problem with Youzhny on the red stuff; he made it to the Munich final last season in addition to his French Open performance, but did very little else. Really that's what you would expect out of him. He is a great athlete and has the movement to get to almost any ball on clay while being rock-solid from the baseline. Youzhny does not generate a ton of topspin, however, and he doesn't particularly like that kind of shot coming back in his direction, so he has problems dealing with true clay-court specialists. A neck problem certainly doesn't help matters; Youzhny retired with the injury after losing the first set of his first match in Monte-Carlo two weeks ago to fellow Russian Igor Andreev. Nonetheless, there is hope for Youzhny yet. He is a streaky player who can catch fire at any time. Just look at his start to 2008: he won the title in Chennai by blowing out Rafael Nadal in the final and he followed that up with a quarterfinal appearance at the Australian Open. If Youzhny is feeling well and gets a nice draw he has second-week potential again in Roland Garros, otherwise there could be a whole lot more self-bashing with his tennis racket that has made him a YouTube phenomenon.
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#18: Tomas Berdych
No player has both more going for him and more going against him at the same time than Berdych. In the Czech's favor is that he is only 22 years old but has been lurking around the Top 10 of the ATP rankings for more than two years. He currently stands exactly 12th. Furthermore, Berdych stands 6'5'' and is a great athlete and can move very well for someone of his size. That allows him to be a threat on all surfaces, although clay is definitely not what he would like to play on day in and day out. The surface, however, will be the least of Berdych's worries at the French Open. First and foremost is his health. He sustained a painful high ankle sprain in the fifth set of a Davis Cup rubber against Nikolay Davydenko in early April and has not played since. Berdych is currently targeting a return in Hamburg, and he better find some immediate success there in order to get enough matches under his belt to give him some hope and confidence heading into Roland Garros. His record at the French is a mere 4-4, but he managed to make it to the fourth round in 2006. The knock on Berdych is that he is too mentally fragile to challenge the top players on tennis' biggest stages (and he has done nothing to dispel that notion), and it's hard to imagine him achieving a breakout if he isn't at 100 percent. Nonetheless, Berdych is too talented to rank him lower than No. 18 for any Grand Slam.
comment on Tomas Berdych as #18
#19: To Be Announced
I have to admit it; I had a spot reserved for Richard Gasquet when I started making the list one week ago, but at this point he has lost his place in the Top 25. I even refuse to put him all the way down here at No. 19. Why? Well, the Frenchman has commenced his clay-court season with dreadful losses to Sam Querrey in Monte-Carlo and qualifier Luis Horna in Rome. Overall he has just a 10-9 match record in 2008. Gasquet's French Open record is also dismal, especially given how high expectations for him are in his native land. He is just 4-6 in Roland Garros and he has reached the third round just once. His form this season does nothing to foresee a best-ever performance there this time around. Until someone steps up, either in Rome or Hamburg, there's one spot for the taking in this Top 25. Barring a sudden and drastic turnaround in Hamburg, it won't be Gasquet.
#20: Paul-Henri Mathieu
Mathieu caught fire during last year's U.S. Open series and also he started off 2008 hot, rising to a career-high No. 12 in the ATP rankings (he currently stands at 20th). The Frenchman's first event of the season resulted in a quarterfinal appearance in Adelaide and he followed that up by reaching the fourth round at the Australian Open and the semifinals in Marseille. Inconsistency has been the name of the game for Mathieu over the past few months and that trend has continued into the clay-court season. He lost to Janko Tipsarevic in the first round of the Masters Series Monte-Carlo, but Mathieu bounced back to win three matches in Munich as the No. 1 seed before falling to Simone Bolelli in a semifinal third-set tiebreaker. Roland Garros seems to bring out the best in the up-and-down Mathieu. He erupted onto the scene as a promising youngster in 2002 by making it to the fourth round, where he lost to Andre Agassi in a five-set thriller. Mathieu has been solid--if unspectacular--ever since at the French Open. With Gael Monfils just returning to the ATP Tour, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga a little banged up, and Richard Gasquet mired in a bad slump, the French fans will certainly be firmly behind Mathieu this year in hopes of having one of their own make some noise in Paris.
comment on Paul-Henri Mathieu as #20
#21: Andy Roddick
As I said earlier in regard to James Blake, I really didn't want to have anything to do with any American in this Top 25 list. As you can see from the quality--or lack thereof--of the first few contenders, there just aren't enough clay-court threats out there to justify keeping the No. 6 player in the world completely out of the Top 25. Plus, Roddick is enjoying a quietly (other than his loud win in Dubai) strong start to the season, albeit having done all of his work on hard courts so far. He got knocked out in the third round of the Australian Open, but he really played a great match and simply got out-hit by an on-fire Philipp Kohlschreiber in a five-set instant classic. Roddick won the title in San Jose, lost early in the Memphis quarterfinals but that came against another on-fire player (Robin Soderling), and won another title in Dubai. After a surprise setback to Tommy Haas in his first match in Indian Wells, Roddick bounced back to overcome Roger Federer in the Miami quarterfinals, only to fall to eventual champion Nikolay Davyenko in the semis. We don't have the benefit yet of seeing Roddick's performance at the Masters Series Rome, and how he fares this week will go a long way in painting his true French Open prospects. Past results in Roland Garros do not bode well for Roddick, nor for any of his compatriots. He is just 4-7 lifetime in Paris, but it hasn't necessarily been that terrible. Don't forget that last year he had to play clay-court guru Igor Andreev in the first round, and you'll also probably be surprised to know that Roddick's best-ever French Open finish came way back in his first try there back in 2001, when he reached the third round. That would suggest that if he can rebuild any ounce of confidence on the red stuff, Roddick could at least entertain visions of making it to the second-week. Needless to say, of course, a draw devoid of clay-court specialists is a must.
comment on Andy Roddick as #21
#22: Jose Acasuso
Acasuso has been inconsistent in 2008, but interspersed with several
first-round exits are number of encouraging results that would suggest
great potential for the French Open. The Argentine, ranked No. 41 in
the world, reached the quarterfinals in Vina Del Mar, the final in
Buenos Aires (featuring wins over Moya and Volandri), and the
semifinals in Acapulco. All of those were events were contested on
clay, Acasuso's favorite surface. Even at the biggest hard-court event
of the year outside the Grand Slams, the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami,
Acasuso won three matches before falling to Roger Federer. The 6'3''
Acasuso is always a threat on the dirt (his long backswings and heavy
topspin are best suited for the surface), and the fact that he is
playing relatively well at the moment will only make him and even more
dangerous opponent in Roland Garros. He is not ranked high enough to be
seeded so he is at risk for a bad draw, but Acasuso has second-week
potential if the chips fall in the right places.
comment on Jose Acasuso as #22
#23: Radek Stepanek
Stepanek's aggressive style of play and propensity for finishing points at the
net has been more conducive to fast-court success, but the Czech is no pushover
on clay. He has made five trips to Roland Garros and has lost in the first
round just once (and that was an 11-9 in the fifth set thriller against
Vladimir Voltchkov in 2004). Stepanek reach the third round in both 2005 and
2006, and even though he lost in the second round last year, his one victory
was a 6-2, 6-2, 6-4 destruction of 5th-seeded Fernando Gonzalez. A late bloomer
on the ATP Tour, Stepanek is showing no sings of slowing down at 29-years-old.
So far this season he has reached the semifinals in Sydney,
the final in San Jose, the semifinals in Memphis, and the fourth
round of the Masters Series Miami. There's no reason to think that solid form
can't translate over to the French Open. Stepanek is ranked No. 28 in the world
and therefore will be seeded, thus avoiding any other seed until the third
round at the earliest. If he gets put in a section with a top seed such as Andy
Roddick or James Blake as opposed to say, Rafael Nadal, Stepanek is capable of
making it to the fourth round.
comment on Radek Stepanek as #23
#24: Juan Ignacio Chela
For any tournament on any surface other than clay, Chela would be a distant
afterthought. At 28-years-old, the Argentine has been reduced to a clay-court
threat and little else. Yes he did make it to the quarterfinals of last year's
U.S. Open, but he had a shockingly favorable draw through four rounds and that
surprise run can only be deemed a fluke. This season has proved as much; Chela
is just 2-4 in hard-court matches. On the dirt, however, the No. 37 player in
the world can still do some damage. Chela has become remarkably inconsistent--even
on the red stuff--in the latter stages of his career, but his potential showed
when he reached the semifinals in Buenos
Aires earlier in 2008. He also won three matches in Barcelona before falling
to Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals. At the French Open, Chela has exited in
the first round just twice in seven appearances and he is also a former
quarterfinalist (2004). Making it that far again would be nothing less than
shocking, but Chela is not someone any seeded player will want to face in the
early stages of the tournament. As an unseeded entrant he will be at the mercy
of the draw, but if he gets somewhat lucky a third or fourth-round performance
is not out of the question.
comment on Juan Ignacio Chela as #24
#25: James Blake
I really didn't want to put him in this Top 25. In fact I would have loved to not put a single American in the Top 25 due to their recent history at the French Open. But there just aren't enough other real contenders out there playing great clay-court tennis to justify leaving Blake out. Anyway, Blake has actually enjoyed a rather solid season so far. Before we get to his clay-court exploits, we must give credit where credit is due for Blake's hard-court accomplishments in 2008. He reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, the final in Delray Beach, and the quarterfinals in San Jose, Indian Wells, and Miami. Those results suggest that until Blake meets an in-form clay-court specialist at the French Open, he can do some damage. In reality, his clay-court season hasn't been that terrible. Sure a blowout loss to Denis Gremelmayr in his first match in Barcelona did nothing to inspire any sort of confidence, but let's not discount the fact that Blake made it to the Houston title match just because it was a relatively minor event. As bad as the Americans have been in Roland Garros of late, it probably comes as a surprise that Blake has lost in the first round just once (last year to Ivo Karlovic) in five appearances. He even knocked out Nicolas Almagro back in 2006 en route to the third round. If Blake, ranked No. 8 in the world, gets a favorable (and I mean extremely favorable) draw at the French, he has an outside shot of making it to the second week.
comment on James Blake as #25