Tournament Previews:May 18-25 Edition
If there ever was a calm before the storm, this is it. The “storm,” of course, is next week’s French Open, and the “calm” is a week of two minor tournaments in Poertschach, Austria and Casablanca, Morocco. It goes without saying that there will be no Federer, no Nadal, and no Djokovic as the top three players rest up for Roland Garros. Nonetheless, the draws are certainly strong enough to pique the interest of diehard tennis fans. World No. 4 Nikolay Davydenko is the top-ranked player in action and he will have no cakewalk through a field in Poertschach that is by far the stronger of the two this week. Casablanca, meanwhile, is completely wide over. Even rockin’ Moroccan Younes El Aynaoui, at 37 years old, has as good a chance as any to capture the title in his native land.
The Hypo Group Tennis InternationalSurface: Clay
Prize Money: 370,000 EurosTop Seed: Nikolay Davydenko
Defending Champion: Juan Monaco
Draw Analysis: Judging from the looks of this field, most of the clay-court specialists are a little worn out from this grueling dirt season and need to rest up for the big one in Paris next week. Not Juan Monaco and Andreas Seppi, however.
Monaco is seeded second and Seppi, who just made it to the semifinals in Hamburg, sixth. If Seppi bounces back from last week’s tiring run, he should be able to make it to the quarterfinals and give Davydenko some trouble. The Italian, though, has to get by dangerous 19-year-old Ernests Gulbis in round one. Jurgen Melzer is in the softer section of the top half and has a good chance of pleasing his Austrian fans with a nice showing this week.
Monaco has a first-round date with fellow Argentine and fairly dangerous clay-cou
rter
Carlos Berlocq. His first real test, however, should come in the form of No. 7
seed Mario Ancic in the quarterfinals. It’s anyone’s guess who the winner of
that potential pairing could get in the semifinals. The seeded players in that
third quarter of the draw are Sam Querrey and Ivan Ljubicic. Neither big man is
particularly adept on the slow stuff, although Querrey surprised everyone with a quarterfinal appearance in Monte-Carlo.
First-Round Upset Alert: Igor Kunitsyn over (4) Mardy Fish. Kunitsyn is ranked outside the top 100 and he hasn’t done much of the ATP this season, but he should be feeling good on clay having recently reached the final of clay-court Challenger event. Fish enjoyed an incredible run to the Indian Wells title match, but he has done very little since and has looked lost on the dirt. The American got crushed by Andy Roddick in Rome and got destroyed by Albert Montanes in Hamburg. Kunitsyn would be no match for Fish on a fast surface, but on clay you have to like his chances for an upset. Also keep an eye on the first-round match between Gulbis and Seppi could be a little tired and he is going up against a youngster with all the talent in the world in Gulbis. Seppi still should take this since it’s on clay, but it is one to watch.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Andreas Seppi, Mario Ancic
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Ivan Ljubicic, Robby Ginepri
Semifinal Predictions: Nikolay Davydenko over Robin Haase and Mario Ancic over Sam Querrey
Final Prediction: Davydenko over Ancic
First-Round Upset Alert: Albert Montanes over (1) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Tsonga
has won one clay-court match in his entire career (although he hasn’t played
many) and that came last week against fellow Frenchman Nicolas Mahut in the
first round of Hamburg.
He followed that up, however, with a straight-set loss to Robin Soderling. Tsonga
sat out with an injury all the way from the end of Miami
to the start of Rome,
so he is still rusty and needs match play this week to get ready for Roland
Garros. But the No. 18 player in the world might be one and done in Casablanca. Montanes is
the essence of a clay-court specialist and he reached the quarterfinals in Hamburg just last week.
Also look for El Aynaoui to upset 8th-seeded Victor Hanescu, and
don’t be surprised if Rainer Schuettler takes out No. 6 seed Chris Guccione. Tournament Previews: April 28-May 4 Edition
Open Sabadell Atlantico
Where: Barcelona, Spain
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 888,000 Euros
Top Seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending Champion: Rafael Nadal
Draw Analysis: With Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic taking this week off, there are three quarters of the Barcelona draw you want to be in if you're a player. Of course that would be the second, third and fourth, and as far away from Rafael Nadal as possible. That didn't work out so well for Peter Luczak or Potito Starace, who would play Nadal in the second round (Nadal and the rest of the type eight seeds get byes in round one). No. 16 Feliciano Lopez is the nearest seed and would get Nadal in the third round, while No. 5 Carlos Moya or No. 11 Juan Carlos Ferrero would meet Nadal in the quarters. James Blake and Andy Murray are the top seeds in the second quarter, but No. 10 Nicolas Almagro is a machine on clay—especially this season—and has to be considered the favorite to come out of there to the semifinals.
The other half of the draw is the one that's loaded with clay-court talent. It's going to be week-long slugfest between the likes of David Nalbandian, David Ferrer Tommy Robredo, Guillermo Canas, and Fernando Verdasco for the right to play Nadal (one can only assume) in the final. Even dangerous lesser-known clay court specialists like Oscar Hernandez and Houston champion Marcel Granollers loom large in that half of the draw. Tennis fans probably also notice that long-lost Guillermo Coria, who has never been the same since collapsing in the 2004 French Open final at the hands of Gaston Gaudio, is in that section. He'll be a heavy underdog against Hernandez in the first round.
First-Round Upset Alert: Kevin Anderson over (15) Dmitry Tursunov. At 6'9'' and armed with a massive serve, Anderson would rather be playing on hard courts or grass, but don't discount him as a pretender in Barcelona just because he is on clay. The South African moves extremely well for a big man and he is surprisingly strong from the baseline, as he showed in his Sony Ericsson Open stunner over Djokovic. Don't forget that Tursunov isn't exactly at home on the red dirt, either. The Russian is often criticized as a brainless ball-basher, and for good reason. Tursunov likes to end points early with big serves and forehands, but living life like that on the clay is difficult. Nicolas Lapentti over 13th-seeded Fernando Verdasco and Jose Acasuso over No. 15 seed Feliciano Lopez would also not come as big surprises.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Rafael Nadal, Nicolas Almagro, Marcel Granollers, David Ferrer.
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Jarkko Nieminen, Ivo Karlovic (2-5 in his last seven matches), Fernando Verdasco.
Semifinal Predictions: Rafael Nadal over Nicolas Almagro and David Ferrer over David Nalbandian.
Final Prediction: Nadal over Ferrer.
BMW Open
Where: Munich, Germany
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 349,000 Euros
Top Seed: Paul-Henri Mathieu
Defending Champion: Philipp Kohlschreiber
Draw Analysis: You know Nadal, Federer, and Djokovic are not in a tournament when Paul-Henri Mathieu is the No. 1 seed. In fact when that's the case, you also know that a whole lot more top players than just the Big 3 are missing—the top 11 to be exact. While that's not exactly a good thing for hoopla or fanfare surrounding the tournament, it's a great thing in terms of the draw being completely wide open. This is literally anyone's tournament to win. The guys in the top half, however, will have a much easier road as it is by far the softer section of the draw. Mathieu has Evgeny Korolev and No. 8 seed Marin Cilic in his quarter, but he just beat Cilic on hard courts in Miami and therefore definitely should be able to take him out on clay. Other than that—unless veteran and Houston doubles champion Rainer Schuettler enjoys an out-of-nowhere singles resurgence—Mathieu seems to have a clear path to the semis, where he would most likely meet third-seeded Philipp Kohlschreiber. It would take a massive upset for the defending champion to fall at any point before the semis in front of the German crowd.
The bottom half of the draw, on the other hand, is loaded with big names. Among them are No. 2 seed Fernando Gonzalez, No. 4 Igor Andreev, No. 5 Tommy Haas, Marat Safin, Gael Monfils, and Juan Martin Del Potro. Only Andreev is in top form at the moment, but all of those guys can get hot at any moment and make noise in Munich.
First-Round Upset Alert: Olivier Rochus over (8) Marin Cilic. Since reaching the Chennai semifinals in his first tournament of the year and then enjoying a breakout fourth-round performance at the Australian Open, Cilic has failed to win more than one match in six straight events. Last week in Monte-Carlo, in his first clay appearance of 2008, he fell to Nicolas Kiefer. Rochus has not exactly been on fire, himself, but the little guy should be able to handle Cilic's huge serve on clay. Rochus also took the first set off Roger Federer in the first round of Monte-Carlo, so clearly the Belgian can be dangerous. Also look for Michael Berrer to upset 5th-seeded Tommy Haas in an all-German clash assuming Haas is still far from 100 percent.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Igor Andreev (two straight Masters Series quarterfinals).
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Tommy Haas, Marat Safin, Fernando Gonzalez, Juan Martin Del Potro (has played just five matches in 2008, 2-3 record).
Semifinal Predictions: Philipp Kohlschreiber over Paul-Henri Mathieu and Igor Andreev over Fernando Gonzalez.
Final Prediction: Andreev over Kohlschreiber.
Tournament Previews: April 21-27 Edition
Masters Series Monte-Carlo
Where: Monte-Carlo, Monaco
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 2,270,000 Euros
Top Seed: Roger Federer
Defending Champion: Rafael Nadal
Draw Analysis: Every
member of the “Big 3” is in Monte-Carlo, but don’t think for a second that any
one of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic will cruise into the
semifinals with no sweat. Federer appears to have a clear path to the
quarterfinals, although Fernando Verdasco should not be overlooked on clay in
the third round. David Nalbandian—or even Robin Soderling—looms large as a
potential quarterfinal opponent. Federer has Djokovic on his half of the draw
this time around, and while Djokovic is in a comparably soft quarter, he is no
shoe-in for the semis. Richard Gasquet and Carlos Moya in the bottom part of
that section are both tough outs on the dirt. As for Nadal, he will most likely
have to contend with Valencia champion David Ferrer in the quarterfinals. Even
before that Nadal’s road could feature encounters with Mario Ancic and Juan
Carlos Ferrero. Nikolay Davydenko has a good draw in the other quarter of the
field, but clay-court genius and Valencia runner-up Nicolas Almagro has to be
considered the favorite (or at least even with Davydenko) to advance.
First-Round Upset Alert:
Sebastien Grosjean over (15) Ivo Karlovic. While clay is the surface on which
Karlovic least likes to play, the 6’10’’ Croat is actually pretty solid on the
red stuff. He won the title in Houston last year, but he decided not to defend
the title last week, instead opting to go to Estoril, where he retired in his
first-round match. Grosjean, a 29-year-old veteran, can still get things done
on the tennis court and he has been quietly solid in 2008. The Frenchmen also
should present a problematic matchup for Karlovic on red clay. Grosjean has one
of the best returns of serve in the game and he should get plenty of looks
against the big man’s deliveries on the slow surface. Once baseline rallies
ensue, Grosjean can wear Karlovic down. Also count on Marc Gicquel taking out
Jarkko Nieminen, look for Jose Acasuso to oust Philipp Kohlschreiber, and
Feliciano Lopez over clay-novice Andy Murray is also a strong possibility.
Momentum Builders (Players looking
to continue recent good form): Nicolas Almagro, Nikolay
Davydenko, David Ferrer, Mario Ancic, Rafael Nadal.
Slump Busters (Players hoping to
resurrect their games): Roger Federer (sure he won
Estoril, but 1) it was a minor event and 2) it was a struggle), Jarkko
Nieminen, Ivo Karlovic (1-4 in his last four matches), Tommy Haas, Richard
Gasquet, Marat Safin, Michael Llodra (0-4 match record since winning two
titles).
Semifinal Predictions:
Novak Djokovic over Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal over Nicolas Almagro
Final Prediction:
Nadal over Djokovic
Tournament Previews: April 14-20 Edition
Davis Cup quarterfinal action entertained fans for the past three days, but it was still a short week of tennis without any ATP tournaments going on. This week, however, will more than make up for the shortage, as there are three events to whet the appetites of tennis fans. Roger Federer headlines the field in Portugal, while the tournaments in Spain and the United States also boast at least one participant ranked in the Top 10.
Estoril Open
Where: Estoril, Portugal
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 370,000 Euros
Top Seed: Roger Federer
Draw Analysis: Federer will be the story of this tournament, at least for as long as he is in it. The world No. 1 has failed to a win a title in three events this season and all eyes will be on him this week to see if he can end the “slump.” There doesn’t appear to be much in his section of the draw to hinder that attempt. Federer has Olivier Rochus in the first round, and the most daunting potential opponent between him and the final is fourth-seeded Jarkko Nieminen, who is playing anything but good tennis at the moment. Nikolay Davydenko, the Miami champion, and Ivo Karlovic, who won the title in Houston at this time last year, are both in the bottom half. Davydenko has a tough matchup with Jurgen Melzer in round one, and don’t overlook this potential second-round affair: Davydenko vs. Martin Vassallo Arguello. Yes, that would be a rematch of last season’s infamous contest in Sopot, Poland in which Davydenko is still be accused of match-fixing.
First-Round Upset Alert: Denis Gremelmayr over (4) Jarkko Nieminen. Gremelmayr has put up some decent results this season, including a win over Sam Querrey on the hard courts of San Jose, and he has plenty of experience on the red stuff via Challenger events. The real reason for this being a potential upset, however, is Nieminen’s form. Since reaching the quarterfinals of the Australian Open earlier this year, the Finn has not won a single match. That’s right; he is winless in last six times out on the court. That does not inspire confidence, regardless of the opponent.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Nikolay Davydenko.
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Roger Federer, Jarkko Nieminen, Ivo Karlovic (1-3 in his last four matches).
Semifinal Predictions: Roger Federer over Philipp Petzschner and Nikolay Davydenko over Ivo Karlovic
Final Prediction: Federer over Davydenko
U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championship
Where: Houston, Texas
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: US $436,000
Top Seed: James Blake
Draw Analysis: Look no further than the very top of the draw to find a blockbuster first-round matchup. Top-seeded James Blake will take on Kei Nishikori in a rematch of this season’s Delray Beach final, in which the Japanese qualifier came back from a set down to stun the American. If Blake is lucky enough to get revenge, he will probably have to deal with Argentine Agustin Calleri in the quarterfinals. A potential semifinal opponent would not be as daunting, as the second section of the draw merely consists of Mardy Fish, Oscar Hernandez, and Donald Young among others. The bottom half is a free-for-all, as seeded players Tommy Haas, Sam Querrey, Dudi Sela, and Marcel Granollers-Pujol are far from unbeatable at the moment. This is a good opportunity for talented youngsters John Isner and Ernests Gulbis to break out, even though clay is arguably their worst surface. That’s just how wide open the bottom half is.
First-Round Upset Alert: Nicolas Massu over (4) Sam Querrey. There’s no other way to say it: the veteran Massu has simply been bad in 2008. There is good news, however, for the Chilean. He has had at least a few decent results (close losses to talented opponents) this season and he can still get things done on clay. Furthermore, Querrey has failed to build on the momentum of winning his first ATP title in Las Vegas one month ago. He lost to Lleyton Hewitt in the second round of Indian Wells then got destroyed by Tomas Berdych in the second round of Miami. On anything other than clay Querrey would be a heavy favorite, but you have to like Massu’s chances in a grueling baseline battle.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): James Blake (quarterfinals of last two Master Series events and two wins in Davis Cup action last weekend), Mardy Fish (Indian Wells runner-up).
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Ernests Gulbis, Robby Ginepri (injury), John Isner (injury), Nicolas Massu, Donald Young.
Semifinal Predictions: Agustin Calleri over Oscar Hernandez and Nicolas Massu over Dudi Sela
Final Prediction: Calleri over Massu
Open de Tenis Comunidad Valenciana
Where: Valencia, Spain
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 370,000 Euros
Top Seed: David Ferrer
Draw Analysis: Even though none of the very top players are here, this should be an extremely high-quality tournament throughout the week. Not surprisingly, some of the best clay-court specialists in the world are in Spain to fine-tune their games leading up to the French Open. Top-seeded David Ferrer is on a quarterfinal collision course with countryman Fernando Verdasco and fellow Spaniard Tommy Robredo could meet the winner of that in the semis. The slumping Robredo, however, would have to navigate through a section of the draw that includes Gael Monfils and Potito Starace. The bottom half is just loaded with clay masters. It’s almost impossible to predict who will emerge from a star-studded group that includes Juan Monaco, Igor Andreev, Juan Carlos Ferrero, and a talented crop of unseeded players including Marat Safin, Evgeny Korolev, and Robin Haase.
First-Round Upset Alert: Two battles between compatriots could result in opening-round upsets. Third-seeded Tommy Robredo is taking on fellow Spaniard Albert Montanes, while eighth-seeded Potito Starace is going up against fellow Italian Simone Bolelli. Robredo is just 2-6 in ATP tournament matches this season and Montanes is dangerous enough on clay to take advantage of a slumping opponent. Starace is strong on clay, but he has a mere 5-6 match record so far in 2008. Bolelli is coming off a nice showing in Miami, where he won two matches (including an upset of Philipp Kohlschreiber) and had eventual champion Nikolay Davydenko on the brink of defeat in round three.
Momentum Builders: Simone Bolelli, Nicolas Almagro.
Slump Busters: David Ferrer, Tommy Robredo, Fernando Verdasco, Gael Monfils (injury), Marat Safin.
Semifinal Predictions: David
Ferrer over Gael Monfils and Nicolas Almagro over Igor Andreev
Tournament Previews: March 3-March 9 Edition
Barclays Dubai Tennis Championships
Where: Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: US $1,401,000
Top Seed: Roger Federer
Draw Analysis: Without question this is the second best tournament of the year so far (behind the Australian Open, of course). The top seven players in the world are all in Dubai and plenty of others who are high seeds at most tournaments aren’t even seeded here. How’s this for an illustration of how loaded this field is: not only is 12th-ranked Andy Murray unseeded, but he’s playing Roger Federer in the first round! The rest of the top half is not as stacked as the bottom section of the draw, but fourth-seeded David Ferrer and eighth-seeded Tomas Berdych are dangerous up there. The bottom half is simply going to feature blockbuster matchups every step of the way. Just look at these first-round showdowns: Richard Gasquet vs. Dmitry Tursunov, Novak Djokovic vs. Marin Cilic, Andy Roddick vs. Juan Carlos Ferrero, and Rafael Nadal vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber. Roddick could play Paul-Henri Mathieu in round two and Nadal in the quarterfinals! Djokovic’s road just to make it to the semifinals could be the following: Cilic-Youzhny-Gasquet. Wow.
First-Round Upset Alert: Andy Murray over Roger Federer? I don’t think so! Instead of looking at that very top part of the draw for a potential upset, go all the way down to the bottom where Philipp Kohlschreiber is taking on Rafael Nadal. The German stunned Andy Roddick in a classic third-round battle at the Australian Open and Nadal is still struggling to find a rhythm on hard courts so the surface will favor Kohlschreiber. Fabrice Santoro over Mikhail Youzhny also should not surprise anyone. ‘The Magician’ is never fun to play against and Youzhny has been mediocre at best ever since an awesome January. Other than that, there are just too many good players in this field for many first-round results to be considered “upsets.”
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Andy Murray (10-2, two titles in 2008), Andy Roddick (10-2, one title in 2008), Paul-Henri Mathieu (this season: one quarterfinal, one semifinal, and a fourth-round in Australia), Novak Djokovic (Australian Open champion).
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Fernando Verdasco (lost in second round of all four tournaments he’s played in 2008), Nikolay Davydenko, Tommy Haas (coming back slowly from injury), Feliciano Lopez (1-4 match record this season), Gael Monfils (has not played since September), Igor Andreev (already three first-round exits this year).
Semifinal Predictions: Roger Federer over David Ferrer and Andy Roddick over Richard Gasquet
Final Prediction: Roger Federer over Andy Roddick
Tennis Channel Open
Where: Las Vegas, Nevada
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: US $436,000
Top Seed: Fernando Gonzalez
Draw Analysis: Almost all of the world’s best are taking their acts to Dubai, but there are enough big-name players wanting to get a tune-up in the U.S. before the Masters Series events to make the Tennis Channel Open easily worth watching. The top half of the draw is especially strong. No. 1 seed Fernando Gonzalez could play two-time 2008 titlist Michael Llodra in the quarterfinals and then in-form Robin Soderling in the quarterfinals. Llodra, however, might have to deal with 6’9’’ John Isner before even getting to Gonzo. Soderling looks he’ll have to navigate a road (starting in the second round) of Gulbis-Baghdatis-Gonzalez/Llodra if he wants to continue his streak of reaching tournament finals. Robby Ginepri has reached the quarterfinals and semifinals of his last two tournaments, respectively, and could pose problems for Baghdatis is round two. The bottom half of the draw pales in comparison to the top, but it dose posses the most interesting opening-round matchup in Marat Safin vs. second-seeded Lleyton Hewitt. Even though neither Hewitt nor Safin (especially not Safin) has been playing particularly well of late, the winner of that match should be favored to make it all the way to the final. Injury-plagued veteran Guillermo Canas, a sensation on the U.S. hard courts last spring, is probably the only one who can threaten either Hewitt or Safin in the bottom section, but he’ll have to be 100-percent healthy in order to do that.
First-Round Upset Alert: Dudi Sela over (1) Fernando Gonzalez. The top-seeded Gonzalez has not played since winning in Vina del Mar in early February due to an abdominal injury. Sela hasn’t done much in 2008, but he did enjoy great success on the Challenger circuit late last year. A bit of revenge will be on the line in this contest, as Sela stunned Gonzalez in the Davis Cup World Group Playoffs last September. Sela’s win clinched the tie for Israel and that victory came after he had already defeated Nicolas Massu on the first day of singles matches. Gonzalez has always been a player who can both beat anyone and lose to anyone on any given day, and considering his recent injury issues, it very well could be the latter in Las Vegas.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Michael Llodra (two titles already in 2008), Robin Soderling (completely on fire since returning from injury), Robby Ginepri (see above).
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Xavier Malisse (two straight first-round exits), Ernests Gulbis (1-4 match record this season plus injury problems), Nicolas Massu (four first-round losses in 2008), Guillermo Canas (injury problems), Nicolas Kiefer (has played just two matches this year), Benjamin Becker (humiliated 6-1, 6-0 by Steve Darcis in Memphis), Marat Safin (1-2 match record this season).
Semifinal Predictions: Marcos Baghdatis over Michael Llodra and Lleyton Hewitt over Guillermo Canas
Tournament Previews: February 25-March 2 Edition
The ATP Tour continues to makes its way to the rapidly-approaching Masters Series events on the hard courts of the United States. For now, the menu continues to feature tournaments of smaller magnitude as the players use these weeks to tune-up for the grander stages ahead. This week the schedule remains the same as in weeks past: one event in South America, one in the U.S., and one in Europe.
Abierto Mexicano Telcel
Where: Acapulco, Mexico
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: US $794,000
Top Seed: David Nalbandian
Draw Analysis: The bottom half is just loaded, as all four seeds in that section are extremely dangerous. Carlos Moya and Nicolas Almagro have already posted solid results on the clay this season, Igor Andreev is always a force to be reckoned with on the dirt, and Guillermo Canas—just now coming back from injury—beat Roger Federer twice last spring. Hardcore tennis fans will be watching Canas with especially keen interest to see what kind of form he is showing. If that’s not enough, unseeded Filippo Volandri and Jose Acasuso also lurk in the bottom half. Up top, No. 1 seed David Nalbandian, the winner last week in Buenos Aires, has an easier road to navigate. However, if third-seeded Juan Monaco is fully recovered from an ankle injury, he could give Nalbandian problems in the semifinals.
First-Round Upset Alert: Carlos Berlocq over (4) Guillermo Canas. The little-known Berlocq reached the quarterfinals in Vina del Mar four weeks ago, so clearly he can get it done on clay. But the real reason for this being a potential upset is Canas. He has not played yet in 2008 due to a wrist injury. Oscar Hernandez over Jose Acasuso is another surprise to watch out for. Acasuso is looking good, having just made it to the final last week in Buenos Aires, but he will be tired from that long run through the draw.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): David Nalbandian, Jose Acasuso, Nicolas Almagro, Fabio Fognini.
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Guillermo Canas, Juan Monaco, Igor Andreev (three first-round exits in five tournaments this season).
Final Prediction: David Nalbandian over Carlos Moya.
Regions Morgan Keegan Championships
Where: Memphis, Tennessee
Surface: Indoor Hard
Prize Money: US $760,000
Top Seed: Andy Roddick
Draw Analysis: The one aspect of the draw that really jumps out is a potential quarterfinal matchup between Roddick and in-form Robin Soderling. Those two guys are playing better than anyone else in the tournament right now, so it’s a showdown that would be better-suited for the final. James Blake is in a relatively soft bottom part of the draw, while American wild card John Isner could face a rematch with Tommy Haas in the third round if he can get past seventh-seeded Jurgen Melzer in the first round and then either Steve Darcis or Vince Spadea in the second.
First-Round Upset Alert: Marat Safin over (6) Thomas Johansson. This would only be an upset based on seeding. Safin has far more talent, although all tennis fans remember Johansson’s shocking win over the Russian in the 2002 Australian Open final.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Robin Soderling, Andy Roddick.
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): James Blake (lost to Kei Nishikori in the final of Delray Beach, lost to Robby Ginepri 6-2, 6-2 in San Jose), Tommy Haas (has been injured and blew three match points against Isner in San Jose), Donald Young (unlikely to break out since he plays Blake in the first round), Marat Safin (hasn’t played since a second-round loss at the Australian Open).
Final Prediction:
Andy Roddick over James Blake.
PBZ Zagreb Indoors
Where: Zagreb, Croatia
Surface: Indoor Hard
Prize Money: 370,000 Euros
Top Seed: Ivan Ljubicic
Draw Analysis: There’s a marquee matchup right at the top with No. 1 seed Ivan Ljubicic playing Ernests Gulbis. That could be a tough one for the hometown favorite. Another Croat, Marin Cilic, appears to have a relatively clear path in the bottom section. A third Croat, second-seeded Ivo Karlovic, could get a rematch with two-time 2008 winner Michael Llodra (Adelaide and Rotterdam) in the second round. The 6’10’’ Karlovic lost to Llodra 7-5, 7-6 in the semifinals of the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament last week.
First-Round Upset Alert: Ernests Gulbis over (1) Ivan Ljubicic. Neither player has enjoyed a good start to the 2008 campaign, but Ljubicic has been especially bad. I saw Gulbis annihilate Tommy Robredo from the front row at the U.S. Open last year and it was the most shocking display of tennis I have ever seen. Sure that probably continues to blind me from reality, but I do know that if Gulbis plays anywhere close to that level, the slumping Ljubicic has no chance.
Momentum Builders: Gilles Simon, Ivo Karlovic, Marin Cilic, Andreas Seppi, Michael Llodra.
Slump Busters: Ivan Ljubicic (just 2-2 in ATP level matches this season), Ernests Gulbis (1-3 match record in 2008 and coming back from injury), Olivier Rochus (hasn’t done anything notable in over a year).
Final Prediction: Ivo Karlovic over Mario Ancic.