This page will feature Australian Open articles and once the tournament begins, a daily blog covering the proceedings at Melbourne Park.
2008 Australian Open Draw Preview
Roger Federer is the favorite in Australia, don’t get me wrong. To suggest otherwise would be borderline crazy.
For the first time in years, however, it looks like the outcome of a Grand Slam is not a foregone conclusion. In Paris it’s been Nadal, Nadal, and more Nadal, and everywhere else it’s been Federer. But for the first time since Marat Safin won the 2005 Australian Open (11 slams have come and gone since then), could we possibly see someone other than Nadal or Federer holding the trophy at the end?
It’s not so much that the 26-year-old Swiss is losing a step; it’s simply that men’s tennis is finally welcoming some other top contenders with open arms. David Nalbandian erupted from the depths of an abysmal 2007 season to win the final two Masters Series events of the year and he upset Federer in both. David Ferrer started last season ranked 14 in the world and he was up to 5th by the end. Andy Murray almost qualified for the year-end Masters Cup despite missing both the French Open and Wimbledon with a wrist injury. Novak Djokovic soared from 16th at the start of 2007 to 3rd in the world; and a solid 3rd at that. He did so by reaching the fourth round in Australia, the semis of both the French Open and Wimbledon, and the final of the U.S. Open. Djokovic also captured two Master Series events.
In other words, while it’s still a Federer-Nadal party at the top, finally others are invited.
What does this mean? It means that instead of going ahead and handing the title to Federer, the draw of a Grand Slam event is finally, thankfully worth analyzing.
Top Quarter of the Draw
It’s only the second toughest quarter in this year’s draw, but this section has it all. It boasts the best player in the world—perhaps soon-to-be best ever—in Roger Federer. It’s home to young up-and-comers (American John Isner and Croat Marin Cilic), and it’s home to cagey veterans (Frenchmen Fabrice Santoro and Sebastien Grosjean and Korean Hyung-Taik Lee). It has clay-court specialists (Chilean Nicolas Massu, Spaniards Nicolas Almagro and Fernando Verdasco, and Argentine Juan Monaco), big servers (Isner, Czech Tomas Berdych, and Australian Chris Guccione), and two of the biggest forehands in the sport (American James Blake and Chilean Fernando Gonzalez). If you’re a fan, this is the section of the draw on which you look with the keenest of interest. If you’re a player, it’s one in which you’d rather not participate.
Best First-Round Matchup — Fabrice Santoro vs. John Isner. The contrast in styles here will be amazing to watch. Isner will try to blow the veteran off the court with massive serves, while the Frenchman will try to frustrate the youngster by slicing and dicing him to death. The bad news is that the winner of this one gets Federer in the second round; otherwise the potential for a deep run in Australia would be very real. Isner burst onto the professional scene last summer with a surprising, third-set-tiebreaker-filled run to the final of the Legg Mason Classic in Washington, D.C. He also won two matches at the U.S. Open and took the first set off Federer in the third round. Santoro, meanwhile, is looking good so far in 2008, as he is currently in the semi-finals of the Sydney Medinbank International. Prediction: Santoro beguiles Isner throughout the match and the American hangs tough before fading in a tough five-setter.
Best Potential Matchup — James Blake vs. Fernando Gonzalez, fourth round. This would be a rematch of last year’s fourth-round clash that failed to live up to any hype. Gonzalez simply didn’t allow it to live up to high standards. As he did to everyone he faced in the 2007 Australian Open not named Federer, Gonzalez blasted inexplicable winners from all over everywhere and ran a discouraged Blake right off the court in straight sets. Neither one is playing great tennis right now, but if they each get three matches under their belts prior to this showdown, then look out for some incredible shot-making, especially of the forehand variety. These two have played eight times; Blake won the first three and the Chilean has won the last five in-a-row.
Most Intriguing Storyline — Both of last year’s finalists are stacked together in this rough quarter of the draw. Federer and Gonzalez would meet three rounds earlier than they did last year Down Under, but it will be no easy task even getting to a rematch. Federer gets the winner of Santoro and Isner in the second round and could play Tomas Berdych in the fourth. In addition to Blake registering on his radar screen, Gonzalez has to face either Chris Guccione, who is on fire in Sydney this week, or the always-tough veteran Hyung-Taik Lee in the second round. Federer should get through this section, but it won’t be cakewalk, especially not when you compare this quarter to the rest of the draw.
Favorite — Roger Federer
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