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Between Friday January 4 and Sunday January 13, in the 10 days leading up to the Australian Open, PTB counted down its list of Top 20 contenders in the season's first Grand Slam event. Two players were previewed each day, starting with #20 and working all the way down to #1.
Top 20 Australian Open Contenders
Sunday January 13
#1: Roger Federer
Sure Federer lost a few more matches than usual in 2007, but he still won a ho-hum three of four Grand Slams last year. The men's game is deeper with a lot more contenders than just Federer and Nadal right now, but to say Federer is not the heavy favorite in Australia is basically to admit your mental health is unstable at best. The Swiss has won three of the last four Aussie Opens, including two in-a-row, and at only 26 years he is in the very prime of his career. So there's no reason to think he won't be able to continue the hot streak Down Under (and everywhere else for that matter, as Federer has played in 10 consecutive Grand Slam finals and has won eight of those). Last year at the Australian rolled through the field without losing one single set en route to the championship. That run included destructions of Mikhail Youzhny, Novak Djokovic, Andy Roddick (one of the best performances ever), and a previously on-fire Fernando Gonzalez in the final. In 2005 Federer lost just two sets total on his way to the final. He's lost just one match in Melbourne Park in the last four years and that was to eventual 2005 champion Marat Safin 9-7 in the fifth set. To Federer doubters who say that he is losing a step, keep in mind that two of his late losses in 2007 came at the hands of out-of-his-mind David Nalbandian at the Masters Series Madrid and the Masters Series Paris, both of which Nalbandian went on to win easily. Since the U.S. Open Federer won in Basel and most importantly, he ended the year in style at the Masters Cup. After an opening-match setback to Gonzalez, Federer blew past his next four opponents all in straight sets, including absolute massacres of Nadal in the semis and David Ferrer in the final. Yes, I think it's safe to say Federer is still on top of his game. Two things that could (but almost certainly won't) hinder Federer's three-peat bid in Australia is the virus that kept him out of Kooyong and the Plexicushion surface that is apparently playing slower than previously advertised. Unfotunately for the rest of the contenders, those appear to be minor factors at most.
Agree? Disagree? Comment on the Aussie Open Contenders discussion thread. (1 comment)
Sure Federer lost a few more matches than usual in 2007, but he still won a ho-hum three of four Grand Slams last year. The men's game is deeper with a lot more contenders than just Federer and Nadal right now, but to say Federer is not the heavy favorite in Australia is basically to admit your mental health is unstable at best. The Swiss has won three of the last four Aussie Opens, including two in-a-row, and at only 26 years he is in the very prime of his career. So there's no reason to think he won't be able to continue the hot streak Down Under (and everywhere else for that matter, as Federer has played in 10 consecutive Grand Slam finals and has won eight of those). Last year at the Australian rolled through the field without losing one single set en route to the championship. That run included destructions of Mikhail Youzhny, Novak Djokovic, Andy Roddick (one of the best performances ever), and a previously on-fire Fernando Gonzalez in the final. In 2005 Federer lost just two sets total on his way to the final. He's lost just one match in Melbourne Park in the last four years and that was to eventual 2005 champion Marat Safin 9-7 in the fifth set. To Federer doubters who say that he is losing a step, keep in mind that two of his late losses in 2007 came at the hands of out-of-his-mind David Nalbandian at the Masters Series Madrid and the Masters Series Paris, both of which Nalbandian went on to win easily. Since the U.S. Open Federer won in Basel and most importantly, he ended the year in style at the Masters Cup. After an opening-match setback to Gonzalez, Federer blew past his next four opponents all in straight sets, including absolute massacres of Nadal in the semis and David Ferrer in the final. Yes, I think it's safe to say Federer is still on top of his game. Two things that could (but almost certainly won't) hinder Federer's three-peat bid in Australia is the virus that kept him out of Kooyong and the Plexicushion surface that is apparently playing slower than previously advertised. Unfotunately for the rest of the contenders, those appear to be minor factors at most.
Agree? Disagree? Comment on the Aussie Open Contenders discussion thread. (1 comment)
#2: Rafael Nadal
Was Nadal’s uncle and coach, “Uncle Toni,” the master of Australian Open draw ceremonies? You would almost think so after a close inspection of the bracket. Nadal’s section is by far the easiest. While it’s still far from simple, it’s nothing like what will be going on in the top half. Nadal should cruise into the fourth round, where he could meet compatriot Carlos Moya, which would be tough but not anything out of the ordinary for a fourth-round Grand Slam matchup. Andy Roddick most likely awaits in the quarterfinals; that’s also tough, but again nothing Nadal would have hoped against prior to the draw’s release. I think contenders 2 through 6 on this list are in a tightly-bunched class by themselves behind Roger Federer (and Nalbandian is also in that group if not at the very top of it if healthy), so how they fell between 2 and 6 in the rankings depended largely on the draw. That said, it's not like Nadal hasn't earned his spot as the second contender at the Australian Open. The Spaniard is a three-time Grand Slam champion (all at Roland Garros) and two-time slam runner-up (both at Wimbledon). He's been to the quarters of both hard-court slams. In three Aussie Open efforts (2004, 2005, and 2007) he's improved from the third round, to the fourth round, and then to the quarterfinals, respectively. In addition to his talent, Nadal's Grand Slam experience--not to mention his second-to-none mental game, determination, intensity, etc.--should not be discounted as major factors Down Under. There was talk that like Djokovic, Nadal fatigued late in 2007 as a result of a brutally tough schedule, and that is at least in part true. But he still made it to the fourth round of the U.S., the quarters of the Masters Series Madrid, the final of the Masters Series Paris, and the semis of the Masters Cup. Nadal kicked off his 2008 season with an epic 3 hour, 55 minute-win over compatriot Carlos Moya in the semis of Chennai. He didn't recover in time to put up a real fight in the final, but by now Nadal has had more than a week to recover and prepare and as a result, it looks like he'll record his best-ever showing at the Australian Open.
Agree? Disagree? Comment on the Aussie Open Contenders discussion thread. (1 comment)
Was Nadal’s uncle and coach, “Uncle Toni,” the master of Australian Open draw ceremonies? You would almost think so after a close inspection of the bracket. Nadal’s section is by far the easiest. While it’s still far from simple, it’s nothing like what will be going on in the top half. Nadal should cruise into the fourth round, where he could meet compatriot Carlos Moya, which would be tough but not anything out of the ordinary for a fourth-round Grand Slam matchup. Andy Roddick most likely awaits in the quarterfinals; that’s also tough, but again nothing Nadal would have hoped against prior to the draw’s release. I think contenders 2 through 6 on this list are in a tightly-bunched class by themselves behind Roger Federer (and Nalbandian is also in that group if not at the very top of it if healthy), so how they fell between 2 and 6 in the rankings depended largely on the draw. That said, it's not like Nadal hasn't earned his spot as the second contender at the Australian Open. The Spaniard is a three-time Grand Slam champion (all at Roland Garros) and two-time slam runner-up (both at Wimbledon). He's been to the quarters of both hard-court slams. In three Aussie Open efforts (2004, 2005, and 2007) he's improved from the third round, to the fourth round, and then to the quarterfinals, respectively. In addition to his talent, Nadal's Grand Slam experience--not to mention his second-to-none mental game, determination, intensity, etc.--should not be discounted as major factors Down Under. There was talk that like Djokovic, Nadal fatigued late in 2007 as a result of a brutally tough schedule, and that is at least in part true. But he still made it to the fourth round of the U.S., the quarters of the Masters Series Madrid, the final of the Masters Series Paris, and the semis of the Masters Cup. Nadal kicked off his 2008 season with an epic 3 hour, 55 minute-win over compatriot Carlos Moya in the semis of Chennai. He didn't recover in time to put up a real fight in the final, but by now Nadal has had more than a week to recover and prepare and as a result, it looks like he'll record his best-ever showing at the Australian Open.
Agree? Disagree? Comment on the Aussie Open Contenders discussion thread. (1 comment)
Saturday January 12
#3: Novak Djokovic
Don't get me wrong, all things being equal Djokovic would be ahead of Rafael Nadal on this list. But the benefit of being the No. 2 player in the world--among other things--is that you're guaranteed to avoid Roger Federer until the final. For Djokovic, however, being in Federer's half of the draw is the least of his worries. He has Benjamin Becker in the first round and potentially Dmitry Tursunov, who just won the tournament in Sydeny, in the third. Whoever emerges out of the brutal group of eight just below Djokovic's pod--which will most likely either be Hewitt, Baghdatis, Safin, or Gulbis--awaits in the fourth round, and David Ferrer or a healthy David Nalbandian would present serious problems in the quarterfinals. In other words, the draw could have been a bit friendlier to Djokovic. Still, however, the 20-year-old is more than capable of coming through the toughest quarter of the draw to set up a semi-final clash with Federer, which would be a rematch of the 2007 U.S. Open final. There's a reason Djokovic is No. 3 in the world and arguably second on hard courts in most people's minds. In 2007 he reached the fourth round of the Australia Open, the semis of both Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and the final of the U.S. Open. The Serb also won two Masters Series events (Miami and Toronto) and finished runner-up in another (Indian Wells) to go along with smaller tournament titles in Adelaide, Estoril, and Vienna. A brutal schedule the consisted of so many matches due to so much winning took its toll on the youngster late in the season (he lost in the first round of the Masters Series Paris and went 0-3 at the Masters Cup and none of the losses were close), but the time off probably did Djokovic some good. There's no reason to think he won't come out flying in his first tournament of the year just as he did last year. The draw is tough, but Djokovic is too good to predict anyone else (unless Nalbandian is 100 percent) coming out of that section to meet Federer in the semis.
Don't get me wrong, all things being equal Djokovic would be ahead of Rafael Nadal on this list. But the benefit of being the No. 2 player in the world--among other things--is that you're guaranteed to avoid Roger Federer until the final. For Djokovic, however, being in Federer's half of the draw is the least of his worries. He has Benjamin Becker in the first round and potentially Dmitry Tursunov, who just won the tournament in Sydeny, in the third. Whoever emerges out of the brutal group of eight just below Djokovic's pod--which will most likely either be Hewitt, Baghdatis, Safin, or Gulbis--awaits in the fourth round, and David Ferrer or a healthy David Nalbandian would present serious problems in the quarterfinals. In other words, the draw could have been a bit friendlier to Djokovic. Still, however, the 20-year-old is more than capable of coming through the toughest quarter of the draw to set up a semi-final clash with Federer, which would be a rematch of the 2007 U.S. Open final. There's a reason Djokovic is No. 3 in the world and arguably second on hard courts in most people's minds. In 2007 he reached the fourth round of the Australia Open, the semis of both Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and the final of the U.S. Open. The Serb also won two Masters Series events (Miami and Toronto) and finished runner-up in another (Indian Wells) to go along with smaller tournament titles in Adelaide, Estoril, and Vienna. A brutal schedule the consisted of so many matches due to so much winning took its toll on the youngster late in the season (he lost in the first round of the Masters Series Paris and went 0-3 at the Masters Cup and none of the losses were close), but the time off probably did Djokovic some good. There's no reason to think he won't come out flying in his first tournament of the year just as he did last year. The draw is tough, but Djokovic is too good to predict anyone else (unless Nalbandian is 100 percent) coming out of that section to meet Federer in the semis.